News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.49% Silver: 0.42% Oil - US Crude: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/CqYIho6z47
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GC3sr4bk5B
  • - Recovery in the US is improving - The increase in Covid cases is concerning, but vaccines give optimism for a return to more normal conditions later this year
  • - Fed bond buying is at a pace "unrelated to magnitude of fiscal deficits" - Low Treasury yields show there is strong global demand for stable and liquid investments
  • Fed Chair Powell: - Too low inflation harms American families and businesses - We do not anticipate high inflation, but have the tools to address pressures if they arise #Fed $USD
  • looking forward to this, webinar starts in an hour. Topics on the radar: 1) USD Q2 Weakness 2) Gold brewing bullish potential? 3) Stonks through initial earnings outlays https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611 https://t.co/6YNhrv8E31
  • Please join @JStanleyFX at 13:00 EST/17:00 GMT for a webinar on trading price action. Register here: https://t.co/rFhWzz0pIy https://t.co/glXTOZWi5i
  • 🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (MAR) Actual: 5.4% Expected: 5.6% Previous: 5.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-20
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.16% FTSE 100: 0.11% France 40: -0.00% Wall Street: -0.90% US 500: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7h5ZfhUZAv
  • $Gold pull back didn't quite get back to that area of prior resistance. But a couple of confluent fibo levels have come into play 1763-1766 https://t.co/klQZ7R6n1Z https://t.co/vBpKjqgRvd
GBP: Perhaps Not Ready Yet For Assault on $1.40

GBP: Perhaps Not Ready Yet For Assault on $1.40

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
GBP: Perhaps Not Ready Yet For Assault on $1.40

GBP Talking Points:

  • GBPUSD remains firm but the 1.40 level will likely prove a difficult barrier to jump.
  • Unemployment, earnings and GDP data are all potentially market moving.
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be at Davos but is unlikely to change interest rate expectations.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Find Out Here What the First Quarter May Hold for GBP, Equities, Oil and Other Key Markets

GBPUSD continues to advance but price action on Friday was interesting: the pair fell on weaker than expected UK retail sales figures, stabilized and then dropped back further. At its high point of the day it was at 1.3945, its strongest level since the day after the UK referendum vote to leave the EU in June 2016, but it was unable to hold on.

This suggests that resistance is now solid at the 1.40 level and it would be no surprise to see a correction, though a spell of sideways trading seems more likely.

GBPUSD Price Chart Daily Timeframe (May 18, 2016 to January 19, 2018)

GBP: Perhaps Not Ready Yet For Assault on $1.40

Chart by IG

UK data in focus

While a weak US Dollar and the rising prospects of an agreed Brexit deal have been largely responsible for the Pound’s advance, the week ahead will likely be dominated by UK economic data. In particular, Tuesday’s figures for unemployment and average earnings will be important even though both will likely be little changed: the unemployment rate staying at 4.3% and the increase in average earnings at 2.5%.

The latter is particularly significant as earnings growth remains below the inflation rate and this continues to curb spending and therefore the consumption component of economic growth. That should become even more evident Friday, when the “advance” fourth-quarter readings for GDP are released. Quarter/quarter a same-again 0.4% growth figure is possible but that would still lower the year/year rate of expansion to a rather weak 1.4% from the previous 1.7%.

Carney at Davos

Data aside, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at a panel meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davosbut is unlikely to say anything market moving. The Bank has indicated that any further interest rate increases after November’s quarter-point hike will be “limited and gradual” – widely interpreted as meaning the next rise will come late this year.

However, two more this year cannot be completely ruled out, with the first perhaps coming in May.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

For help to trade profitably, check out the IG Client Sentiment data

And you can learn more by listening to our regular Trading Webinars

https://www.dailyfx.com/free_guide-tg.html?ref-author=Essex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES