Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
GBP: Supported For Now But Politics Hold Sway

GBP: Supported For Now But Politics Hold Sway

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

  • GBP remains under downward pressure but further losses may be avoided if talks remain civil.
  • A lull in Brexit hostilities is helping the British Pound
  • Next month’s BOE meeting is likely to see a 0.25% interest rate hike.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

We remain neutral on GBP but would likely turn short-term bullish if the recent cessation of EU/UK hostilities remains in place.

Thursday’s EU Summit leaders meeting saw a slight change in tone in the war of words between the EU and the UK, most notably over the ‘divorce bill’ with the EU saying that while insufficient progress had been made so far to move on to trade talks, they would begin ‘internal preparation’ for the second round. Markets took this as a positive message from the EU that a potentially damaging ‘no deal’ was gradually being removed from the negotiating table. While negotiations are still expected to prolonged and potentially fractious, this

move is giving GBP an upwards boost.

Markets are also looking forward to the next Bank of England policy announcement on November 2 with expectations running high of a 0.25% interest rate hike. Next week’s final 3Q y/y GDP release is expected to show growth of 1.5%, but any downgrade of GDP, coupled with this week’s 3% inflation print may stay the BOE’s hand in hiking rates until the December meeting.

Chart: EUR/GBP Daily Time Frame (May – October 20, 2017)

On the above EUR/GBP chart there is fibonacci support at 0.8927 ahead of 0.8810 while any GBP weakness could see an attempt at 0.9072.

Chart by IG

And you can check out our latest Q4 trading forecast for Sterling here.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.