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GBP/USD to Face Fresh Monthly Lows on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric

GBP/USD to Face Fresh Monthly Lows on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric

David Song, Strategist
GBP/USD to Face Fresh Monthly Lows on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

With a slew of Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak throughout the last full-week of September, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may generate new monthly lows in GBP/USD should they boost market expectations for a 2016 rate-hike.

Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, Chair Janet Yellen, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are all on tap after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stuck to the current policy at the September 21 interest-rate decision, and we may see a more collective approach to prepare U.S. households and businesses for a December rate-hike as the voting-members appear to be following a similar path to 2015. Indeed, hawkish remarks may prop up the dollar as Fed Funds Futures highlight a greater than 50% for a December hike, but market participants may start paying closer attention to next year’s rotation within the FOMC as central bank officials forecast a lower trajectory for interest rates. In turn, the U.S. dollar stands at risk of facing headwinds over the near to medium-term as Chair Yellen and Co. look poised to further delay the normalization cycle over the policy horizon.

With the Bank of England’s (BoE) next interest-rate decision due out on October13, market participants may see a shift in the policy outlook as board member Kristin Forbes endorses a wait-and-see approach and argues the ‘initial effect on the UK economy of the referendum has been less stormy than many expected.’ In turn, a growing number of BoE officials may also warn that they are ‘not yet convinced that additional monetary easing will be necessary to support the economy,’ and Minouche Shafik may highlight a similar tone next week as the Deputy Governor is scheduled to attend a Bloomberg News event on September 28. The broader outlook for the British Pound remains bearish as the U.K. prepares to depart from the European Union (EU), but the less-dovish remarks coming out of the BoE may limit the downside risk for the sterling especially as Governor Mark Carney rules out a zero-interest rate policy (NIRP) for the region.

GBP/USD to Face Fresh Monthly Lows on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric

GBP/USD stands at risk of breaking down from the triangle/wedge formation carried over from the previous month as the pair trades to fresh monthly lows going into the final week of September, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be highlighting a similar dynamic as it fails to preserve the bullish formation carried over from the summer months. In turn, a break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2920 (100% expansion) to 1.2950 (23.6% expansion) may open up the next downside area of interest around 1.2630 (38.2% retracement), but the pound-dollar may continue to consolidate within a wedge/triangle formation should Fed officials fail to prop up interest-rate expectation.

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