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BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

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  • $WTI Crude Oil has edged higher today, currently trading above the 60.00 level. The commodity had traded in a narrow range below the 60.00 level last week and this week's moves show an attempt at continuing above those levels. $OIL $USO https://t.co/p5Btmy02yo
  • - The 2% inflation goal should not be seen as a cap - ECB should guide on tolerance of inflation overshoot - ECB should not introduce yield curve control - Time to exit PEPP has not yet arrived
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.18% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.04% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4F59HkhNfe
  • ECB's Villeroy: - Not legitimate to debate inflation return in Europe - Causes of inflation increase are temporary - Substantial slack will weigh on medium-term inflation #ECB $EUR
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.31% Germany 30: 0.19% US 500: 0.09% FTSE 100: -0.13% Wall Street: -0.42% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2KKukSjZt6
  • #Gold has rebounded from the one week lows set following today's CPI print, rising from 1,724 to trade near 1,750 before slipping back downwards. The precious metal is now trading just above the 1,740 level. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/7s7Hvro6k9
  • As long as you don't use gasoline or fuel oil, are looking to buy a used car, pay rent or eat food; there is little inflation in the US. Weighting is an interesting thing
  • FDA: J&J vaccine pause likely to be only a "matter of days."
  • The US Dollar has remained weaker following this morning's CPI print. The $DXY is currently trading below the 92.00 level for the first time since March 23rd, at a fresh three week low. $USD https://t.co/Lq4EUP8Gyo
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.11% Oil - US Crude: 1.03% Gold: 0.74% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/JNHxwZwMe2
British Pound May Finally Mount a Sustained Recovery versus USD

British Pound May Finally Mount a Sustained Recovery versus USD

David Rodriguez, Head of Product
British Pound May Finally Mount a Sustained Recovery versus USD

Fundamental Forecast for Pound:Neutral

The British Pound finished the week modestly higher but continued to trade in a tight range versus the US Dollar. A busy week ahead threatens to force a decisive break in the GBPUSD and other pairs.

The simultaneous release of UK Jobless Claims and Earnings data with Bank of England Minutes will likely prove the highlight in the days ahead, and GBPUSD traders should likewise keep a close eye on a highly-anticipated US Federal Reserve interest rate decision that same day. Earlier-week UK Consumer Price Index inflation figures as well as late-week UK Retail Sales results could also elicit reactions from GBP pairs.

Whether or not the Sterling mounts a sustained recovery versus the US Dollar will likely depend on the direction of interest rate expectations for both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. A sharp compression in the spread between UK and US government bond yields helps explain why the British Pound fell to fresh 14-month lows versus the Greenback through November. Yet a great deal of uncertainty surrounds both the Fed and BoE; any surprises out of the coming week’s economic data and central bank rhetoric could easily force a repricing of yields and the GBPUSD exchange rate.

The US Dollar in particular looks vulnerable on any disappointments from the Federal Reserve, and indeed the previously-unstoppable USD finally showed concrete signs of slowing through the past week of trade. And though the Sterling could itself see fairly significant volatility on UK event risk, we expect that the overall US Dollar trend will ultimately dictate whether the GBPUSD makes a sustained recovery.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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