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  • Retail CFD traders (via IG) have flipped net long on the $SPX for the first time since the Pandemic low almost a year ago:
  • ...also for those without kids or are not inherently young at heart, March 2nd is Dr. Seuss's birthday.
  • The price of gold struggles to retain the rebound from the start of the week as longer-dated US Treasury yields hold above pre-pandemic levels. Get your $XAUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Uh oh. Another financial product/meme pivot. I think Elon is just a BTD kind of guy who is in tune with the social trading trends and wants to bring the retail crowd along with him. Would fit the essence of Tesla and Space X
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  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.87% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.78% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.45% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.19% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.20% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.70% View the performance of all markets via
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  • The price of oil extends the series of lower highs and lows from the February high ($63.81) ahead of the (OPEC) (JMMC) meeting on March 3. Get your #crudeoil market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.57%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.37%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
Bearish GBP/USD Outlook Favored on Dovish BoE- U.K. CPI in Focus

Bearish GBP/USD Outlook Favored on Dovish BoE- U.K. CPI in Focus

David Song, Strategist
Bearish GBP/USD Outlook Favored on Dovish BoE- U.K. CPI in Focus

Fundamental Forecast for Pound:Bearish

The Bank of England (BoE) Minutes are widely expected to show another 7-2 split within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as the majority retains a wait-and-see approach, and the policy meeting minutes may do little to increase the appeal of the British Pound as the central bank curbs its growth and inflation forecast.

Even though the BoE remains on course to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015, the downward revisions delivered in the quarterly inflation report favors a bearish outlook for GBP/USD as Governor Mark Carney adopts a more dovish tone for monetary policy and warns of the ‘large disinflation pressures’ coming from abroad. With that said, easing interest rate expectations is likely produce further headwinds for the sterling, but positive data prints coming out of the U.K. may generate a near-term correction in GBP/USD as the central bank sees the economy returning to normal.

As a result, a rebound in the U.K’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) along with a marked pickup in Retail Sales may spur a bullish reaction in GBP/USD, but we will for an extension of the series of lower highs & lows in the exchange rate as it retains the bearish trend dating back to July.

In turn, we will retain the approach to sell-bounces in GBP/USD and watch former support around the 1.5890-1.5900 for new resistance, with the next downside region of interest coming in around 1.5540-50, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the August 2013 low.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.