We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/f4y1FOOZnM #tradingstyle https://t.co/x5HgYopWc5
  • The USD may rise if the FOMC re-affirms its data-dependent approach and cools 2020 rate cut bets. US retail sales and CPI data may also give the Fed impetus to hold rates. Get your $USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/XnDITaDOox https://t.co/A480uVMqF2
  • What tools does the ECB have left to stimulate the Eurozone? Where is the #Euro heading? Find out from Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Claus Vistesen only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast hosted by @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/DXlDH5Cp9e
  • The price of oil extends the advance from the October low as #OPEC and its allies pledge to take additional steps to balance the energy market. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/llGq8yPFH4 #OOTT https://t.co/1OCVOIrK98
  • Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your gold technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ovGheRg4MQ https://t.co/ZEQSYktj0w
  • What is your #tradingstyle? Take the quiz and let us know: https://t.co/LPBOcS0Vtd https://t.co/l6FvtcADEH
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/dnrAMFK4U2
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/RMk5Eb5fLU
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
GBP/USD Vulnerable on Dovish BoE Minutes, Scotland Independence

GBP/USD Vulnerable on Dovish BoE Minutes, Scotland Independence

2014-09-13 02:55:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:
GBP/USD Vulnerable on Dovish BoE Minutes, Scotland Independence

Fundamental Forecast for Pound:Bearish

The British Pound is likely to face heavy volatility in the week ahead as the Bank of England (BoE) publishes the policy meeting minutes, while Scotland takes to the polls to vote for independence on September 18.

It seems as though we will see another 7-2 split within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as Ben Broadbent and David Miles remain in no rush to normalize monetary policy, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may continue to prop up interest rate expectations as Governor Mark Carney retains an upbeat view for the U.K. economy. Despite the risk of Scotland leaving the U.K., it seems as though the central bank will retain its game plan to normalize monetary policy as Mr. Carney sees the first rate hike coming in the Spring of 2015, and a more upbeat tone from the MPC may generate a larger recovery in the British Pound as the BoE moves away from its easing cycle.

At the same time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting will also be closely watched as Janet Yellen and Co. look to halt its asset-purchase program in October, but we would need to see a material shift in the forward-guidance to see a major market reaction as the central bank remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

With that said, the Scottish Referendum holds the biggest risk for surprise as independent polls continue to highlight the threat for a breakup, and the outcome is likely to have a material impact on the near-term outlook for the GBP/USD as a departure from the monetary union may spark a material shift in the policy outlook.

Nevertheless, there are tentative signs of a more meaningful rebound in the GBP/USD as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes off of oversold territory, but we would need to see a break of the bearish momentum along with a move and closing price above former support (1.6280-1.6300) to favor a more bullish outlook for the pound-dollar. - DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.