News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • German Foreign Minister says we have made progress in Iran nuclear talks https://t.co/lhCneqTUAP
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/pY4LFKsD7P
  • Rouhani’s Chief of staff says lifting of economic sanctions on Iran has been agreed in Vienna #OOTT
  • IHS Markit "inflation worries have continued to intensify. Record levels of the survey’s price gauges and the further development of capacity constraints hint strongly that CPI has much further to rise after already breaching the BoE's 2% target in May" https://t.co/qRGdhxWfqp
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (JUN) Actual: 61.7 Expected: 62.8 Previous: 62.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-23
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (JUN) Actual: 61.7 Expected: 63 Previous: 62.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-23
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (JUN) Actual: 64.2 Expected: 64 Previous: 65.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-23
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/HpGjvYi8eu
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (JUN) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 62.8 Previous: 62.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-23
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (JUN) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 64 Previous: 65.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-23
GBP/USD Vulnerable on Dovish BoE Minutes, Scotland Independence

GBP/USD Vulnerable on Dovish BoE Minutes, Scotland Independence

David Song, Strategist
GBP/USD Vulnerable on Dovish BoE Minutes, Scotland Independence

Fundamental Forecast for Pound:Bearish

The British Pound is likely to face heavy volatility in the week ahead as the Bank of England (BoE) publishes the policy meeting minutes, while Scotland takes to the polls to vote for independence on September 18.

It seems as though we will see another 7-2 split within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as Ben Broadbent and David Miles remain in no rush to normalize monetary policy, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may continue to prop up interest rate expectations as Governor Mark Carney retains an upbeat view for the U.K. economy. Despite the risk of Scotland leaving the U.K., it seems as though the central bank will retain its game plan to normalize monetary policy as Mr. Carney sees the first rate hike coming in the Spring of 2015, and a more upbeat tone from the MPC may generate a larger recovery in the British Pound as the BoE moves away from its easing cycle.

At the same time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting will also be closely watched as Janet Yellen and Co. look to halt its asset-purchase program in October, but we would need to see a material shift in the forward-guidance to see a major market reaction as the central bank remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

With that said, the Scottish Referendum holds the biggest risk for surprise as independent polls continue to highlight the threat for a breakup, and the outcome is likely to have a material impact on the near-term outlook for the GBP/USD as a departure from the monetary union may spark a material shift in the policy outlook.

Nevertheless, there are tentative signs of a more meaningful rebound in the GBP/USD as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes off of oversold territory, but we would need to see a break of the bearish momentum along with a move and closing price above former support (1.6280-1.6300) to favor a more bullish outlook for the pound-dollar. - DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES