News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
  • #Gold prices put in a major breakout last month and, so far, buyers have held the line. But a really big Fed meeting is on the calendar for this week. Can Gold bulls hold? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/NGRTSfceOW https://t.co/QkSUORIQE2
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/PHK2sqB1jV
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/12/Dollar-and-SP-500-Breaks-Must-Abide-the-FOMC-Decision-This-Week.html https://t.co/Huvth4f706
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/AkE7bFRWAt
  • $GBPUSD continues to trade in ranges as volatility dwindles. UK data to play second fiddle to FOMC. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/T0Eg4KaENB https://t.co/GMmZa5L0Il
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/wlGgQrcK3X
Bullish British Pound Trend to Gather Pace- Broader Range in Focus

Bullish British Pound Trend to Gather Pace- Broader Range in Focus

David Song, Strategist
Bullish_British_Pound_Trend_to_Gather_Pace_Broader_Range_in_Focus_body_Picture_1.png, Bullish British Pound Trend to Gather Pace- Broader Range in Focus

Bullish British Pound Trend to Gather Pace- Broader Range in Focus

Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Neutral

The British Pound surged higher following the Bank of England (BoE) inflation report, with the exchange rate climbing to a monthly high of 1.5573, and the upward trending channel in the GBPUSD may continue to take shape next week as the economic docket is expected to highlight an improved outlook for growth. Indeed, a ninth consecutive decline in U.K. Jobless Claims along with a 0.6% rise in Retail Sales should raise the scope for a faster recovery in the second-half of the year, but the Consumer Price report raises the risk of seeing a near-term pullback in the pound-dollar as the headline reading for inflation is expected to narrow to an annualized 2.8% from 2.9% in June.

Although the BoE adopted a 7.0% threshold for unemployment, the central bank added the inflation ‘knock out,’ which sparked speculation that the Monetary Policy Committee may have to start normalizing monetary policy ahead of schedule, and the shift in the policy outlook may continue to prop up the sterling as the board has failed to achieve the 2% target for price growth since late 2009. Given the MPC’s track record, the risk of seeing inflation expectations being unanchored may become a growing concern for the committee, and a stronger-than-expected U.K. CPI print may spark another short-term rally in the British Pound as it dampens the BoE’s scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance.

With the inflation report out of the way, the BoE Minutes due out on August 14 may have a limited impact on the sterling, but the policy statement should show another unanimous vote, with the central bank turning increasingly upbeat towards the economy as the economic recovery gradually gathers pace. Former BoE board member Charles Goodhart argued that the ‘British recovery is probably somewhat underestimated’ and said that the MPC may ultimately deliver a rate-cut ahead of the third-quarter of 2016 as the economy gets on a more sustainable path.

Despite the risk of seeing a short-term pullback in the GBPUSD, the upward trending channel from the July low (1.4812) should gather pace as the fundamental outlook for the U.K. improves, and we are looking for a move back towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2009 range (1.5680-90) given the bullish reaction to the BoE’s inflation report. Nevertheless, there remains a risk of seeing a small correction in the exchange rate as the GBPUSD comes up against trendline resistance, but we will look to implement a buy-the-dip strategy for the British Pound should the data prints on tap for the following week further the case for the BoE to normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule. - DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES