We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Signals from retail trader positioning hint that the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 could have room for weakness ahead as the CAC 40 attempts to climb towards key resistance. Get your European #equities update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/gepciUHqxT https://t.co/BAJ9f1nTwE
  • 🇯🇵 Retail Sales YoY Actual: -13.7% Expected: -11.5% Previous: -4.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-28
  • 🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Prel Actual: -14.4% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-28
  • 🇯🇵 Retail Sales YoY Actual: -13.7% Expected: -11.5% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Retail Sales YoY due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Expected: -11.5% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Prel due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-28
  • 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate Actual: 2.6% Expected: 2.7% Previous: 2.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 2.7% Previous: 2.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-28
  • The US Dollar has fallen substantially this week as the Dollar Basket (DXY) skirts the edge of lower-lows as it forfeits the ground it captured in the March rally. Get your $USDCAD market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/JW6ohifDeF https://t.co/twToadCrtr
  • The #Euro is attempting to break above range resistance capping upside progress for nearly two months. Momentum and sentiment studies warn it may fail. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/4tpAAC1ZpV https://t.co/sCZskNhfJ4
FOREX: British Pound Forecast Depends on US Nonfarm Payrolls

FOREX: British Pound Forecast Depends on US Nonfarm Payrolls

2012-10-27 03:59:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:
British_Pound_Forecast_Depends_on_US_Nonfarm_Payrolls_body_gbp.png, FOREX: British Pound Forecast Depends on US Nonfarm Payrolls

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

Impressive UK economic data helped fuel an important British Pound rally against the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR), but a key week of forex event risk threatens the nascent GBP recovery.

An important week of US event risk is likely to force sharp moves across key forex pairs in the days ahead, and we’ll keep an especially close eye on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report to gauge implications for the resurgent GBPUSD. The British Pound rallied for the first week in five, and the sharp bounce from monthly lows suggests bulls may not have given up just yet.

On the domestic front, FX traders will look to UK Consumer Credit, GfK Consumer Confidence, and Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing and Survey Index results. A strongly better-than-expected GDP growth report lifted expectations for UK economic fundamentals, but it remains to be seen whether the lagging Q3 data points to more robust growth in Q4 and beyond.

From a technical perspective, continued GBPUSD failure at key resistance of $1.6177 would put the currency’s recovery in doubt. The British Pound was the second-best performing G10 currency through the past week of currency trading, but the GBP had lagged the Euro and others by a sizeable margin prior to its post-GDP recovery. Whether or not this is the start of a bigger reversal may very well depend on the coming week of price action.

We’re strong believers in seasonal tendencies across forex markets; currencies tend to set their highs and lows for the week/month/year at the beginning and end of each period. In concrete terms, the British Pound/US Dollar pair has failed to reach the same heights seen through the first week of October. The next question is clear—can it hit fresh lows in the final week and/or set the stage for a broader recovery in November?

It will be critical to watch key US economic data in the days ahead. Given the US Presidential elections less than two weeks away, market conditions may be tense. It’s always difficult to predict how financial markets react to political events. Yet one thing is clear: traders do not like uncertainty. The next two weeks of trading could decide the trajectory of the British Pound and US Dollar through November and end of year. - DR

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.