News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true.Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here:
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook!
British Pound at Risk as Bernanke Disappoints, Euro Crisis Escalates

British Pound at Risk as Bernanke Disappoints, Euro Crisis Escalates

2012-08-25 03:34:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
British_Pound_at_Risk_as_Bernanke_Disappoints_body_Picture_1.png, British Pound at Risk as Bernanke Disappoints, Euro Crisis Escalates

Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bearish

A bare-bones domestic economic calendar leaves the British Pound at the mercy of broader market themes, putting the spotlight on the evolving outlook for global economic growth and the festering Eurozone debt crisis. Sterling remains anchored to risk appetite, with the benchmark GBPUSD exchange rate continuing to show a strong correlation with the MSCI World Stock Index. With that in mind, the UK unit may find itself under pressure as the markets’ loss of patience with EU officials’ sluggish crisis-fighting efforts and a disappointment of hopes for additional Fed stimulus make for a risk-averse environment.

On the growth side of the equation, all eyes will be on Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium and a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The central bank chief used the venue to unveil QE2 in 2010 and traders are speculating that the third round of asset purchases may emerge this time around. Last week, a dovish set of minutes from Augusts’ FOMC sit-down fueled bets on imminent accommodation, but dismissive comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard quickly poured water to the doves’ exuberance. Bullard said the minutes were dated in light of the improvement in US economic data through July and August, hinting the Fed may not see the landscape as warranting a reboot of asset purchases. Top-tier US data releases crossing the wires late into the week printed north of expectations, seemingly reinforcing Bullard’s position.

Faced with these conflicting cues, traders will closely monitor next week’s stock of manufacturing survey data from the Dallas, Richmond, Kansas City and Chicago Fed branches to set the stage for Bernanke’s speech. The Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions and Augusts’ Consumer Confidence reading will likewise meet with close scrutiny from investors. On balance, an unequivocal nod toward QE3 seems unlikely. Medium-term inflation expectations remain reasonably anchored near the Fed’s target 2 percent rate and borrowing is materially cheaper than it was when QE2 emerged, with Treasury bond yields sitting just off record lows. US has economic data has also performed increasingly better relative to expectations since mid-July, suggesting the need for added support is less than urgent. That means the Fed is likely to reserve QE3 as an available tool in its arsenal in the event that the mess in Europe triggers another credit crunch akin to the aftermath of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Turning to the Eurozone, last week’s anticlimactic developments in Greece and further stalling from the ECB on its bond-market support program revealed investors’ frustration with a lack of directional cues – whether positive or negative – from Eurozone officials. Markets may be approaching a juncture where price action forces policy once again, with risk aversion breaking out amid signs of continued dithering. The focus will be on a meeting of German and French finance ministers, a formal review of the EU/IMF bailout program for Portugal, and a set of bond auctions from Spain and Italy (where average yields and bid-to-cover readings will be closely monitored as a gauge of funding stress). With little in terms of a breakthrough likely on the horizon, a round of risk aversion may be brewing to punish policymakers’ foot-dragging. Importantly, while such an environment is expected to hurt the Pound against established havens such as the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, it may be uniquely supported against the Euro as regional capital flows seek an alternative to the single currency.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.