We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD may return to the offensive as markets flee to cash amid fears of deep global recession thanks to the still-raging #coronavirus outbreak. Get your US Dollar update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/g1us4ZbYR5 https://t.co/detT6m6ZKo
  • The #Dow Jones, S&P 500 and #DAX 30 have bounced after aggressive declines. Can this momentum last? Trader positioning seems to be offering mixed signals as technicals point bearish. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/DdCUyoGSmL https://t.co/NQtbwy5Brg
  • Reports that London-based fund managers have discussed long market closures with the Bank of England are unlikely to bear fruit, but that they happened at all may boost already-crowded haven trades. Get your EUR/CHF market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/mernf5MDH3 https://t.co/1rzQT6ClCY
  • $AUD chart positioning suggests prices have set a swing top near the 0.62 figure. Re-engaging the long-term downtrend against $USD may follow. Get your AUD/USD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/OIEDlId6HZ https://t.co/CzqJf3wsgh
  • The $USD could be on the verge of regaining upside momentum against ASEAN FX such as the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit. Will the Philippine Peso follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/cBzPejcNHu https://t.co/4fcImOiSzD
  • $NZD chart positioning suggests the downtrend against its US namesake may be resuming but trader sentiment studies flash warning sign for sellers.Get your NZD/USD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/NUHD43A8C9 https://t.co/K7l3Ju0GP0
  • The Federal Reserve has made a powerful statement about its commitment to shoring up offshore $USD funding markets through the #coronavirus spread. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/fLZjxjr4L9 https://t.co/UdRor0d92U
  • The #Euro has dropped through support guiding it higher from late-March lows, suggesting that the end of a corrective rebound has given way to downtrend resumption. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/gpKowYNmGi https://t.co/CY7RuZf91s
  • What are a few of the common trading mistakes made by traders? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/Q3sPmP2rya #tradingstyle https://t.co/ayjehPGEeT
  • $USDCAD came close to taking out the 17-year-high just a few weeks ago, but this was followed by an aggressive pullback down below the 1.4000 handle.Get your USD/CAD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/aWmL2rlWzG https://t.co/cauVFdBxsd
British Pound to Remain Under Pressure with Myriad of Data Due

British Pound to Remain Under Pressure with Myriad of Data Due

2012-01-07 03:09:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:
British_Pound_to_Remain_Under_Pressure_with_Myriad_of_Data_Due_body_Picture_5.png, British Pound to Remain Under Pressure with Myriad of Data Due

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

It’s a new year, but that hasn’t equated to a new trend for the British Pound. Continuing its steady decline against the U.S. Dollar, the Sterling found itself down 0.75 percent to start the year as pressures surrounding the Euro-zone linger. Euro-zone problems are affecting the broader European continent at this point, with the European currencies – the Euro, the Sterling, and the Swiss Franc – rounding out the worst performers against the Greenback thus far in 2012.

With the first week of the year now out of the way, a period when markets historically have remained less volatile from their holiday hangover – market volume typically thins out in late-December, as it did again this year – we now turn towards the last batch of data for 2011. Early estimates suggest that 2012 may be a worse year than 2011 for the British Pound.

The bulk of the data that will stoke volatility in Pound-based pairs is due on Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday will be a more ‘important’ day for the Pound, relatively speaking, as the Bank of England is set to have its first policy meeting of 2012. Ahead of that, on Wednesday, British trade balance figures for November are due, and the data is not shaping up to be spectacular. The British visible trade balance is forecasted to have moved from a surplus to a deficit, which comes as little surprise considering how the British Pound fared against the Euro in November: the EUR/GBP fell 0.68 percent (and it has fallen 3.26 percent since November 1).

The Sterling’s strength in November against the Euro will be reflected in data due out Thursday, which features the latest reading of industrial and manufacturing productions in the United Kingdom. On a year-over-year basis, production is forecasted to have fallen by 2.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively for each sector. These figures are not expected to rebound as the Pound strengthens against the Euro.

In light of these developments, the Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday becomes that much more important. I have long argued that the British economy is stagflating, and the recent bout of data does little to suggest otherwise. The Bank of England is not expected to address this issue at this meeting, where the key interest rate is expected to remain on hold at 0.50 percent, the rate it has held since March 2009. Instead, market participants will look towards whether or not the Monetary Policy Committee will expand its quantitative easing package. If the Bank of England is preparing to flood the system with Sterling, the EUR/GBP may find support, offering some reprieve for British exporters in the near-future. Until then, fundamentally, the Pound appears primed to weaken further, especially against the safe havens, the Japanese Yen and the U.S. Dollar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.