Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Hit by Gas Disruptions, Parity Break at Risk

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Hit by Gas Disruptions, Parity Break at Risk

Warren Venketas, Analyst


  • Russian sanctions weigh on Euro.
  • EU GDP and inflation in focus next week.
  • Bearish IG client sentiment.


EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Get Your Free EUR Forecast
Get My Guide

Gazprom and its subsidiaries in several European regions were impacted by Russian sanctions this past week, adding upside pressure on EU inflation and growth forecasts. This does not bode well for the Euro despite hawkish comments from several ECB officials. Money markets are currently pricing in roughly 85bps of cumulative rate hikes by the ECB for 2022 which could be the reason why we have not seen much in the way of Euro strength via hawkish ECB statements.

Next week’s economic calendar holds some key EU data including CPI and GDP prints. GDP is forecasted lower QoQ, and may mimic the poor showing from the UK growth figures leading to sustained downward pressure for the EUR/USD pair.


Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide



Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Price action on the daily EUR/USD chart shows Thursdays break below what appears to be a bear flag support (blue) and subsequently the 1.0400 psychological level. This now brings into question the 1.0340 2017 swing low as the next port of call for bears. A push through this key area on inflection could bring the 1.0000 parity zone into consideration and I do not see much defiance to this belief in the weeks to come.

Short-term, there is bullish divergence apparent with the RSI (yellow) showing slowing bearish momentum while EUR/USD prices push lower. Traditionally, this points to looming upside but timing can be difficult to predict. I do think the dollar rally is due for a marginal pullback before resuming the prior trend.

Resistance levels:

  • 1.0600/20-day EMA (purple)
  • 1.0400

Support levels:

  • 1.0340 – 2017 swing low
  • 1.0064 (76.4% Fibonacci)


IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on EUR/USD, with 76% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment resulting in a downside bias.

EUR/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 8% 10% 8%
Weekly -1% 2% 0%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.