News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Advance Should Continue After Strong Economic Data

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Advance Should Continue After Strong Economic Data

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bullish

  • Friday’s economic statistics showing a second-quarter Eurozone GDP growth rate of 13.7% year/year and a July inflation rate of 2.2% year/year will likely turn the European Central Bank more hawkish on monetary policy; a positive for EUR/USD and the Euro crosses.
  • Moreover, the pair eased Friday after strengthening from Monday to Thursday, suggesting that profit-taking after the advance could provide traders with a better entry point for the trade.

Euro price well placed to advance further

Friday’s Eurozone data caught forecasters by surprise. The region’s second-quarter economic growth rate came in at a robust 13.7% year/year, even better than the predicted 13.2% and compared with a 1.3% contraction previously. Moreover, the July inflation rate came in at 2.2% year/year, above the forecast 2.0%, above the previous 1.9% and above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target.

For sure, like other central banks, the ECB expects this high inflation rate to be transitory but, at the very least, the data should make its Governing Council think again about delaying tapering its monetary stimulus programs and that may well give EUR/USD another leg higher.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (April 1 – July 30, 2021)


Source: IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

As the chart above shows, the 1.19 level seems to be providing resistance. However, Friday’s fall in EUR/USD after a strong week suggests there was some profit-taking and that could provide Euro bulls with a better entry point to benefit from any further advance.

Week ahead: Final PMIs and German data

As for the week ahead’s data, there is little on the calendar. With traders likely to be focusing on the monetary policy meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England ahead of Friday’s US employment report, Monday’s German retail sales figures for June and the final Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July should pass under the radar.

Similarly, the final Eurozone July services PMI, Eurozone retail sales numbers for June, German factory orders for the same month and German industrial production data also for June will likely garner little attention.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.