News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here:
  • In the week ahead, around 25% of S&P 500 companies will release their results, including GE, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Microsoft, Boeing, AT&T, Facebook, Apple, Tesla, Visa and Amazon. Read more on my earnings outlook report.
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.20%) S&P 500 (+0.28%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.51%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Nearly 80% of the S&P 500 constituents closed in the red on Friday, dragged by materials (-0.43%), financials (-0.38%) and energy (-0.34%) whereas defensive utilities (+0.20%), real estate (+0.15%) and communication services (+0.02%) outperformed.
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here:
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
  • RT @GunjanJS: This is pretty wild. Last year, in RECORD year for options, about 30 million contracts traded daily. This year, it’s been mo…
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here:
  • What are some technical and fundamental factors affecting the equities market? Get your free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge:
Euro Forecast: More Upside for EUR/USD, Or is 1.20 the Limit?

Euro Forecast: More Upside for EUR/USD, Or is 1.20 the Limit?

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Neutral

  • EUR/USD is back again to within touching distance of the 1.20 level that is seen by analysts as the line in the sand that has been drawn by the ECB.
  • That raises the question of whether the pair has enough momentum to break higher or whether it will fall back.
  • More likely, perhaps, is a pause for consolidation before a strong move one way or the other.

Euro price closes in on critical 1.20 level

It is now almost three months since the European Central Bank’s Chief Economist Philip Lane, and other unnamed ECB officials, effectively drew a line in the sand at 1.20 for EUR/USD, signaling that the central bank does not want to see the pair above that level for fear it would damage the Eurozone’s economic recovery.

Since then, EUR/USD has fallen as far as 1.16 but for most of this month it has been edging higher as news of coronavirus vaccines and central bank stimulus have raised hopes of an economic recovery next year. That in turn has prompted investors to shift out of the safe-haven USD and into more risky assets including EUR.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (August 19 – November 26, 2020)


Source: IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

As the chart above shows, EUR/USD has not yet been overbought and there is no evidence that the ECB could stop the pair from appreciating further even if it wished to. After all, it is almost impossible to imagine even more monetary stimulus than is already here or on the way. That argues for a sustained breach of 1.20.

However, no trend lasts forever and the fairly steep climb from just under 1.16 at the start of this month points to at least a pause and perhaps a pullback. Overall, therefore, a period of consolidation is now arguably the most likely scenario for the next week or two.

Week ahead: Eurozone Inflation, Unemployment and Retail Sales

Against this background, economic data will continue to have less impact than usual. It is, though, a busy week ahead for statistics, with inflation, employment and retail sales numbers due for both Germany and the Eurozone as a whole; and analysts will be watching the numbers carefully for any signs of a recovery from the economic damage caused by Covid-19.

Starts in:
Live now:
Feb 02
( 10:02 GMT )
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Trading Sentiment
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

We look at currencies regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.