News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.06% US 500: 0.04% Wall Street: 0.01% France 40: -0.03% FTSE 100: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via
  • 🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (SEP) Actual: 6.9% Previous: 7.9%
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.45%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.75%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Forex Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (SEP) due at 13:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 7.9%
  • It was noted that monetary policy decisions in December would be consistent with prevailing market expectations
  • ECB Minutes - headline inflation was now expected to be in negative territory for longer than had been foreseen in the September projections
  • What are the three ways the stock market impacts the economy? Find out here.
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts due at 12:30 GMT (15min)
  • 🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (SEP) Actual: -5.5% Expected: -6.6% Previous: -9.2%
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD May Extend Last Week's Losses

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD May Extend Last Week's Losses

2020-11-15 00:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish

  • EUR/USD fell early last week even as hopes of a coronavirus vaccine raised the tantalizing prospect of a global economic recovery and prompted a move by investors out of safe havens like the US Dollar into more risky assets such as stocks.
  • By Thursday, this optimism had already started to fade and that raises the prospect that the decline in EUR/USD could be extended this coming week, particularly as the ECB still seems certain to loosen monetary policy next month.

Further setback risk for Euro

The prospect of a coronavirus vaccine that would halt the pandemic and lead to a global economic recovery prompted a swing by investors out of safe havens like the US Dollar early last week and into riskier assets such as the “value” stocks that have been hit hardest by the worldwide downturn. However, the Euro failed to benefit and EUR/USD lost ground – to the surprise of many analysts.

By Thursday, there were clear signs that the vaccine optimism had gone too far, raising the prospect of a reversal of the earlier moves and even the possibility that the gains in riskier assets had been due simply to short-covering rather than a reversal of the previous trend. If so, EUR/USD – which remains around the middle of the broad 1.16 to 1.20 range in place for almost four months – could well fall further.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (August 12 – November 12, 2020)

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD May Extend Last Week's Losses

Source: Refinitiv (You can click on it for a larger image)

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Download our Q4Euro forecast
Get My Guide

ECB remains dovish

From the EUR side of the EUR/USD pair, the most important upcoming event is the meeting of the European Central Bank’s policy-setting Governing Council on December 10 in Frankfurt, where a further easing of monetary policy is all but certain.

Speaking last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said it is crucial that monetary policy ensures favorable financing conditions for the whole economy and that the central bank will continue to deliver the financing conditions necessary to protect the economy from the impact of the pandemic. She added that the economic recovery from the pandemic could well be bumpy, and hinted at an increase in the duration of monetary support as well as its size.

There was a similar message too from the Bank of Spain’s Chief Economist Oscar Arce, who said the ECB must introduce additional monetary stimulus in December to stave off the risk of Eurozone deflation. “We must act swiftly and forcefully,” he said.

Week ahead: Eurozone inflation and consumer confidence

Turning to the economic data, there are only two items of note on the calendar. Wednesday’s final October inflation statistics are unlikely to have an impact but Friday’s “flash” figure for November consumer confidence could be important. The consensus among economists is that a drop to -17.4 from October’s -15.5 is on the cards and such a fall would underline the case for more monetary stimulus next month – probably via both the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and its Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs). These involve bond buying and cheap loans for banks respectively.

Starts in:
Live now:
Dec 01
( 10:12 GMT )
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Trading Sentiment
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

We look at currencies regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.