News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • (ASEAN Fundy) US Dollar Forecast: Turning Point Reached? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP #USD $USDGSD $USDTHB $USDIDR $USDPHP https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/10/25/US-Dollar-Forecast-Turning-Point-Reached-USDSGD-USDTHB-USDIDR-USDPHP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/87N97EGWdr
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/N2GqH7QoOd
  • RT @mkraju: Manchin signaling he’s open to $1.75T for social safety net bill, per source briefed on matter, but it’s unclear where the pric…
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts @JohnKicklighter and @JStanleyFX on $USD with our free Q4 market analysis guide, available for free today. https://t.co/7G7pWntiyY #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/XYCRng3hEW
  • RT @JournalistRoss: From CNN's @mkraju: The goal among Democratic leaders is to have a vote Wednesday or Thursday on the infrastructure pac…
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow at 8:30am ET on @DailyFX !! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/L15w1dzclc
  • Wow Liverpool... https://t.co/9Mx6Xmw4iS
  • With the $SPX, Bitcoin and Fed 2022 rate forecasts pushing record highs; the heavy economic docket for the coming week will make for some loaded trading potential. The events and markets I'm looking at ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/10/23/SP-500-Reversal-ECB-Decision-FAANG-Earnings-Top-Volatility-Themes-Next-Week.html https://t.co/1SGirtalSb
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/wdbXlx7ChB
Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Negative on Second Wave Fears

Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Negative on Second Wave Fears

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Euro price chart

Source: IG Charts

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish

  • A second wave of Covid-19 cases in countries such as China and the US that have eased lockdown restrictions will likely keep investors cautious in the week ahead.
  • That could damage the Euro and other “risk on” currencies against safe havens such as the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.
  • On the data front, “flash” PMI data for June will likely point to only a modest Eurozone economic recovery this month.

Euro price in danger of falling further

If China and the US prove typical, countries that ease the lockdown restrictions in place to protect their citizens from the coronavirus pandemic can expect in increase in infections, and that will likely keep investors cautious in the coming week.

There had been hopes that a solid economic recovery was on the way but that now seems in doubt, and the chances are that investors will again opt for safe havens like the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen rather than the Euro, the British Pound or the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the overall gloom, geopolitical concerns also seem to be spreading, with China and India facing off at their border, and North Korea and South Korea arguing again. In fact, the only good news seems to be optimism about a drug to help save the lives of coronavirus patients and the continued willingness of the world’s central banks to flood the banking system with money.

This has already begun to take its toll on EUR/USD, which is now well down from the high above 1.14 reached earlier this month, and further losses from here would be no surprise.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (February 18 – June 18, 2020)

EURUSD Chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Week ahead: PMIs and Ifo

There are few major data releases from the Eurozone in the week ahead but the figures that are published could be important. Tuesday sees a batch of June purchasing managers’ indexes released and the consensus is that the numbers from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will all show improvements from May in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

All are expected to remain below the 50 level separating expansion from contraction but at least they look to be moving in the right direction. Similarly, the Ifo business climate index for Germany in June and the German GfK consumer confidence index will likely be higher than the month before, though still signaling a very weak economy.

How to read a forex economic calendar

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES