News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • WTI crude up roughly 1% on the session, trading back above the 50-day moving average $CL $WTI #Oil
  • USD/CAD holds above the 50-Day SMA (1.2577) following the kneejerk reaction to Canada’s Employment report. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • S&P 500 has so far held support around the Friday low. $ES $SPY $SPX tomorrow is big for US Data: August CPI with the expectation for some moderation. 5.2% expected v/s last month's 5.3%, Core expected at 4.2% v/s last month's 4.3%
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups Pre-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD
  • RT @NYFedResearch: Short- and medium-term inflation expectations rose to new series highs of 5.2 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, acc…
  • RT @LiveSquawk: NY Fed: Further Rise in Consumers’ Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations - @NewYorkFed
  • Technical Levels: US #Dollar Majors, #Gold, #Silver, #Oil & #Bitcoin (Webinar Archive) -
  • $USD still slipping off of this resistance, next support on my chart 92.46 $DXY
  • This #Litecoin partnership with Walmart story has since been debunked as fake. What a disgrace. Classic pump and dump action here. 30% rally then crash for a ~$11.5B cryptocurrency in a matter of minutes around these headlines. Who needed to exit? $LTCUSD $WMT
Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Still Bearish

Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Still Bearish

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
EURUSD Price Chart

Source: IG Charts

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish

  • Last week’s video conference of members of the European Council to discuss the EU’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak again highlighted the slow pace and complexity of decision making by the bloc’s leaders.
  • Combined with a crash in IHS Markits composite purchasing managersindex for the Eurozone in April to 13.5, by far its lowest reading since the survey began in mid-1998, its hard to see anything other than a further decline in the Euro.

Euro price at risk of further losses

The latest purchasing managers’ indexes for April, released late last week, were uniformly bad, confirming that the global economy will be hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the PMIs for the Eurozone still stood out as particularly weak, with the composite index for the region down to 13.5 – by far its lowest reading since the survey began in mid-1998 and considerably below all forecasts in a poll by the Reuters news agency.

The data led IHS Markit, which compiles the figures, to comment that they are “indicative of the Eurozone economy contracting at a quarterly rate of approximately 7.5%” and that “the second quarter looks set to record the fiercest downturn the region has seen in recent history”.

If confirmation were needed, it came from the GfK measure of German consumer confidence, which plummeted to minus 23.4 from a positive 2.3 the month before; way below the forecast -1.7.

Against this background, it was no surprise that EUR/USD continued to slide lower and there are no signs yet that the coming week will see a reversal of the trend unless there is an unexpected burst of market optimism that sparks a flight from the relative safety of the USD into riskier currencies like the EUR.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (November 18, 2019 – April 23, 2020)

EURUSD Price Chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

At the same time, the sluggish pace of Eurozone decision making came into focus again last week as EU leaders met once more, by video conference, to decide on the EUs response to the Covid-19 outbreak. It was the fourth video meeting of its kind and was intended to agree on joint action, with the focus on the single market, investment efforts, global action and on better governance and resilience.

This contrasted with far swifter action to combat the economic impact of the pandemic by countries such as the US and the UK, and provided another reason to be pessimistic about the outlook for the Euro.

Week ahead: ECB meeting in focus

Turning to the economic events scheduled for this week, the spotlight will be on Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank. It is almost certain to keep all its key interest rates unchanged but, as ever, it will be the accompanying commentary that could potentially move the markets.

As for the economic data, there are plenty of figures that would normally affect exchange rates but in these exceptional times none will likely do so. The numbers include German retail sales Monday, Eurozone confidence and German inflation Wednesday, and a raft of statistics Thursday including French and Italian first-quarter GDP, German and Eurozone unemployment, and Eurozone inflation.

Dollar, Gold, Yen: What are the Top Safe Havens of 2020?

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.