We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Crude Oil Prices May Idle as the FOMC Regains the Spotlight - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2019/09/17/Crude-Oil-Prices-May-Idle-as-the-FOMC-Regains-the-Spotlight.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #CrudeOil #OOTT
  • US Energy Secretary Perry says the US is taking a wait and see approach as to whether to use SPR
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/TBxNcA745X
  • Another headache for the Riksbank as the Swedish labour market worsens - Unemployment rate 7.1% - Seasonal adjusted figure at 7.4% Notably above the Riksbank's forecast in its September monetary policy report $SEK https://t.co/5dhRRMvp2B
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.89%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.28%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MRpMVcygyC
  • Saudi Oil Minister press conference is set to take place from 18:15BST #OOTT
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.20% Silver: -0.34% Oil - US Crude: -0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/SKWxoMbOFk
  • RT @LiveSquawk: 18:15 BST #OOTT https://t.co/uWBjXgfXlF
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.08% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.30% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Y0mbFgtDou
  • Negative yielding government bonds , what are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/QECZSCfN52
Euro May Fall as ECB Easing Looms, Italy Flirts with Early Elections

Euro May Fall as ECB Easing Looms, Italy Flirts with Early Elections

2019-08-17 22:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

EURUSD Price Chart 2-Hour

EURO FORECAST: BEARISH

  • Euro somewhat resilient amid growing trade war, recession fears
  • ECB meeting minutes, PMI data may set stage for stimulus boost
  • Political instability another risk as Italy flirts with early election

Get our free guide to help build confidence in your Euro trading strategy!

The Euro has managed to hold up relatively well amid the turmoil plaguing global financial markets in recent weeks. US-China trade war escalation and inversion of the Treasury bond yield curve – historically a harbinger of recession – have soured risk appetite.

For its part, the single currency managed to offset losses against rising anti-risk alternatives like the Yen and the US Dollar with durable support against sentiment-geared FX, such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Sellers might prevail as the spotlight turns to domestic matters however.

EURO LIKELY TO FALL AS ECB PREPARES TO BOOST STIMULUS

The week ahead will probably remind investors that the ECB is gearing up to deliver a new stimulus effort next month. In fact, priced-in expectations put the probability of easing at a commanding 100 percent. Minutes from the Governing Council’s last conclave might illuminate how this will be done.

A fresh round of TLTRO bank liquidity injections has been on the menu for some time. Cutting the deposit rate deeper into negative territory and/or lowering the main refinancing rate below 0 may be added on. Restarting QE asset purchases is also a possibility.

Incoming economic data could help justify policy support. Region-wide PMI readings are set to show the manufacturing sector shrank again in August while services growth slowed. Outcomes echoing a recent string of disappointments on bloc-wide news flow may disappoint even such soggy forecasts.

POLITICAL TURMOIL IN ITALY MAY ADD TO EURO WEAKNESS

Political turmoil stands to compound downside pressure. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is due to make a big-splash speech responding to calls for an early election from Lega party boss Matteo Salvini, one of the Deputy Prime Ministers in the ruling coalition government.

Conte may set the stage for a vote of no confidence to test his mandate or resign outright, effectively acceding to an early vote. That ought to spook financial markets leery of installing a eurosceptic populist bent on bending Eurozone budget rules at the helm in Rome.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

EURO TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Australian Dollar Bears Rule But May Not Turn Up Heat This Week

Sliding Crude Oil Can't Look to Jackson Hole For Price Support

US Dollar May Rise if Fed Minutes and Jackson Hole Spook Markets

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.