We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Markets Weigh Weekend Headline Risk - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2019/10/18/Crude-Oil-Prices-May-Fall-as-Markets-Weigh-Weekend-Headline-Risk.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #CrudeOil #OOTT
  • Greed has proven to be a hindrance more than assistance for traders. How does greed lead to #FOMOintrading? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/aT8TZjlFqP https://t.co/DBuSOfIhQY
  • US Dollar Forecast: USD/MYR Reversal as USD/PHP Tests 2013 Support #USD $USDMYR $USDPHP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2019/10/18/US-Dollar-Forecast-USDMYR-Reversal-as-USDPHP-Tests-2013-Support.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/VfFPJhPX31
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/aqWMzoZRrk
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.68%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CFFN6tgMXb
  • #GBPUSD Testing Five-Year Resistance: Breakout Ahead? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2019/10/18/GBPUSD-Testing-Five-Year-Resistance-Breakout-Ahead.html
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/i1K0L7cDfA
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.09% US 500: -0.13% France 40: -0.31% Germany 30: -0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ly8aOm0jV8
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/taFcP1Ge44
  • RT @markets: Reserve Bank watchers consider the options for Australian QE and how it would impact markets https://t.co/9gYZgZXeE5
Euro at Risk on Data Flow and ECB Comments, Brexit Vote May Eyed

Euro at Risk on Data Flow and ECB Comments, Brexit Vote May Eyed

2019-03-24 04:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Eur

EURO FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL

  • Euro gives up post-FOMC gains on soft PMI survey roundup
  • Incoming data flow, ECB comments may bolster dovish view
  • Another House of Commons Brexit vote may drive volatility

Gain confidence in your Euro trading strategy with our free guide!

A burst of seesaw volatility ultimately left the Euro with a loss last week. The currency surged higher Wednesday as an unexpectedly dovish Fed policy announcement drove a powerful push higher from the benchmark EUR/USD exchange rate. Follow-through was not in the cards however, with subsequent corrective pullback turning into an outright selloff courtesy of dismal PMI data.

DATA FLOW, ECB COMMENTS MAY WEIGH ON EURO

The week ahead offers ample opportunities for data-driven price swings. Germany’s IFO survey of business confidence as well as CPI updates from the Eurozone’s top-three economies are on tap. Downside surprises echoing the broad tendency of incoming news-flow to undershoot baseline forecasts over recent months might drive a dovish shift in ECB policy bets, weighing on the single currency.

A flurry of scheduled speeches from central bank officials – most notably from ECB President Mario Draghi – might add to policy-based selling pressure. As it stands, a new round of LTROs has been unveiled and interest rate hikes have been delayed at least through 2019. Sellers may be emboldened by language suggesting that even greater accommodation may be in tow as growth sputters.

Looking for a technical perspective on the euro? Check out the Weekly EUR Technical Forecast.

ANOTHER BREXIT VOTE THREATENS VOLATILITY

On the external front, the next chapter in the messy Brexit saga is probably the most potent of catalysts. Parliament will once again be asked to vote on a version of the withdrawal bill backed by UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Two earlier drafts suffered crushing defeat. If this one passes, “exit day” will move to May 22. If not, the new deadline will be the uncomfortably closer April 12.

The House of Commons has already pronounced its distaste for a “no-deal” Brexit. If Mrs May falls short again, the government is likely to apply for a longer-term extension and plan for the UK to take part in the upcoming EU Parliament elections. This might lift the Euro against most of its top counterparts (perhaps excluding the Pound itself) in that it will further defer the “point of no return”.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Likely Loser In Ugly Contest With US Cousin

British Pound Forecast – GBP Fundamental Forecast: And The Brexit Band Played On

US Dollar Forecast – Post-FOMC U.S. Dollar Recovery to Face Slowing GDP Report

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Outlook Clouded by Recession Signals, US Econ Data Drop

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.