0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 5.25% Gold: 0.99% Oil - US Crude: 0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/gpka4HBCay
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.03%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.79%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/FfFR6kxBCO
  • Ahead of the RBNZ rate decision next week, the New Zealand Dollar has struggled to climb higher against its major counterparts, with the exception of the US Dollar. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/iZxV2qSVrw https://t.co/CGE3WeJ3Yl
  • U.S. State Department lifts travel advisory for all international travel - BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.21% Wall Street: 0.20% France 40: 0.10% Germany 30: 0.06% FTSE 100: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uCGMUoQfxx
  • Senator Collins 'still optimistic' on stimulus deal - BBG
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN +1.33% #BITCOINCASH +5.60% #ETHEREUM -0.07% #RIPPLE +1.08% #LITECOIN +1.63%
  • https://t.co/A8Ywz4dGqr
  • Emerging Markets: Volatility is rife within the EM complex following the heavy selling in the Turkish Lira, having blown past the 7.0000 handle. Get your $XAG market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/SIfXngFsR8 https://t.co/uDh1sdNfkn
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.13%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.27%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/E6VnriWgve
Euro Forecast: Upside Likely Constrained with CPI Due at End of Week

Euro Forecast: Upside Likely Constrained with CPI Due at End of Week

2019-02-24 20:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:
Euro Forecast: Upside Likely Constrained with CPI Due at End of Week

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Neutral

- The Euro’s performance last week was a microcosm of its performance in 2019: in the middle of the pack, gaining ground against four currencies and losing ground against the other three.

- Upcoming Eurozone inflation figures should show that price pressures remain weak, keeping expectations high for a dovish shift in tone by the European Central Bank.

- The IG Client Sentiment Indexshows that traders are paring back their net-long EURUSD exposure.

See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Another week has passed in which the Euro has been neither the best nor the worst performing currency, producing another middling performance as external factors continue to dominate traders’ attention. In a sense, the Euro’s performance last week was a microcosm of its performance in 2019, finishing in the middle of the pack: gaining ground against four currencies (EURUSD, EURAUD, EURJPY, and EURNZD) while losing ground against the other three (EURCHF, EURCAD, and EURGBP).

February Eurozone CPI on Friday; Economic Data Momentum Slowly Turning Higher

Contributing to Euro stability in the past two weeks may be stability in the conditions around inflation starting to stabilize. True, market measures of inflation continue to slump – the 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, ECB President Mario Draghi’s preferred market gauge of inflation expectations, fell to its lowest closing level in over two years at 1.430% last week. But energy prices are rebounding, with Brent Oil prices up by +8.9% over the past four-weeks.

Sprinkle in a soft trade-weighted Euro (-3.73% since February 22, 2018), and the conditions are in place for the decline in inflation readings to level off. The upcoming initial February Eurozone Consumer Price Index on Friday should confirm this theory, where headline CPI is due on hold at +1.5% y/y.

In line with inflation readings leveling off, economic data momentum has started to improve, helping underpin recent stability in the Euro. The February PMI readings were better than expected last week, and now the Citi Economic Surprise Index improved to -64 by February 22, up from -88 on January 25.

Brexit, US-China Trade War, and Now, a Potential US-EU Trade Dispute

The Brexit saga continues to be at center stage for EURGBP, whose price action is merely a reflection of near-term sentiments regarding the whole situation. Key deadlines are quickly approaching, with UK parliament set to take control of the UK side of negotiations after February 26. Additionally, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is weighing ditching a March 12 vote on her Brexit plan. Needless to say, it seems highly likely that an extension is possible beyond the March 29 Brexit deadline. Any development that reduces the odds of a no deal, ‘hard Brexit’ will weigh on EURGBP, plain and simple.

Elsewhere, with the US-China trade war negotiations are rightfully near the center of attention – a key March 1 negotiating deadline is approaching – it seems that the EU is being dragged into its own trade dispute with the US. Quips between US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker over US agricultural and EU automobile imports/exports threaten opening up a new chasm in trade, already a growing obstacle to global growth thanks to the Sino-American tiff.

Positioning Data Still Lags, Almost Fully Caught Up after US Government Shutdown

The US government shutdown from December 23 to January 25 is still having an impact on the release schedule for the CFTC’s COT report. As such, the CFTC’s COT report released on Friday was for the week ended February 5, and it showed that speculators had increased their net-short Euro positions to 52K contracts from 46.7K net-short contracts reported for the January 29 period. The CFTC’s COT report is still not a fully reliable source of positioning at present time; instead, traders may want to look to the IG Client Sentiment Index.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.