News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Japanese Yen remains in focus with strength potential on risk aversion themes to go along with weakness on themes around higher rates. Get your weekly $JPY technical forecast from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Google finance-related search interest in 'Evergrande' has almost overtaken 'Covid'. 'Taper' doesn't even register on the scale
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Gold remains higher despite positive Evergrande news out of China. Meanwhile, copper bulls are pushing prices upward as the potential for a housing crisis in China ebbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • GBP/USD has flattened overnight after its strongest rally in a month on Thursday. The British currency has been under pressure recently as an energy crisis has caused a number of gas providers to go bankrupt. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
  • Gold could suffer further near-term losses due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weak technical picture for price action. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Gold has been trending lower after failing to clear resistance in the $1835 area earlier this month. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DColmanFX here:
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
Euro Forecast: GDP and CPI Revisions Due amid Ongoing Italian Tensions

Euro Forecast: GDP and CPI Revisions Due amid Ongoing Italian Tensions

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Euro Forecast: GDP and CPI Revisions Due amid Ongoing Italian Tensions

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Bearish

- Continued tension around Italy’s budget keeps the tone around the Euro bearish, as neither Brussels nor Rome appears ready to compromise on their respective demands.

- Incoming economic reports aren’t likely to be helpful for the Euro, as revisions to already-released data will remind market participants about slowing growth momentum in the Eurozone.

- The IG Client Sentiment Indexcontinues to suggest more downside ahead for the Euro.

See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The Euro continued its streak of underperformance last week, losing ground against five of the seven major currencies, while extending its weekly loss streak against the US Dollar to four in a row (and six of the last seven; EUR/USD lost -0.46% last week). EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD continued to lead the way lower alongside widespread gains by risk-correlated assets, dropping by -1.66% and -0.92%, respectively. To this end, ongoing strength in equity markets allowed EUR/JPY to stay afloat by a meager +0.10%.

As the calendar now turns into the middle of November, it seems likely that the catalysts that have guided the Euro lower in recent weeks will remain in place. Concerns about flailing growth momentum won’t be shaken off, as the second revision to the Q3’18 Eurozone GDP report will remind market participants about weakness on the economic data front. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone is currently at -55.8, down from -24.8 one month ago.

Similarly, the final release of the October Eurozone CPI report will show that price pressures in the region remain below the European Central Bank’s medium-term target of +2%, set to stay on hold at +1.7% y/y as first reported. Inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, up to 1.706% on November 9 from 1.686% on October 12. The weaker Euro in recent weeks may be helping lift inflation expectations; on a year-over-year basis, the trade-weighted Euro is down by -1.49%.

Otherwise, the simmering Italian debt saga will continue to be a main draw for market participants. For Italian politicians in Rome, there is a desire to run a budget that fulfills key campaign promises, which will lead to increased deficit spending in the near-term. For European policymakers in Brussels, the concern is that large deficits will raise the odds of a larger-scale Greece-style crisis (Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 130%) for the Eurozone’s third-largest economy. A compromise isn’t out of the question, but is looking markedly less likely than where things stood at the end of September.

Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC’s COT for the week ended November 6, speculators increased their net-short Euro positions to 46.8K contracts, an increase from the 32.6K net-short contracts held in the week prior. Positioning is starting to become interesting once again, but is still remains on the historically light side and thus the risk of capitulation remains low.


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.