News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.45%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 79.42%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/A2N0d6DXwa
  • 🇨🇳 Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (JUN) Actual: 66.9% Previous: 83.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-27
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/pjMQlUKAq7
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (JUN) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 83.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-27
  • Nasdaq 100 at Record High as Tesla Earnings Beat, Will Hang Seng Rebound? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/27/Nasdaq-100-at-Record-High-as-Tesla-Earnings-Beat-Will-Hang-Seng-Rebound.html https://t.co/RKIZk3JM5N
  • Please join @FxWestwater at 22:00 EST/2:00 GMT for a webinar on preparing to trade commodities markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/qTOa61aMmN https://t.co/gsJWRtnAMe
  • The Nasdaq 100 index climbed 0.09% to a record high, lifted by large-cap stocks such as Tesla (+2.21%), Alphabet (+1.33%) and Amazon (+1.18%). https://t.co/R4JvuR31sx
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/HPA1Fj43Lc
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: IBEX 35 Analysis: Rally Continues Despite Virus Fears, Focus Shifts to Fed Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/27/IBEX-35-Analysis-Rally-Continues-Despite-Virus-Fears-Focus-Shifts-to-Fed.html https://t.co/…
  • RT @FxWestwater: Asia AM - Australian Dollar Forecast: $AUDUSD May Rise on Chinese Industrial Profits Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/07/26/Australian-Dollar-Forecast-AUDUSD-May-Rise-on-Chinese-Industrial-Profits.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https:…
Euro's Quiet Calendar Means Other Currencies are in Control

Euro's Quiet Calendar Means Other Currencies are in Control

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Euro's Quiet Calendar Means Other Currencies are in Control

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral

- The Euro finished in the middle of the pack last week, with EUR/USD easing by -0.72% and EUR/GBP gaining +1.78%.

- According to the CFTC’s COT report, net non-commercial Euro longs rose back to their second highest level of the year during the week ending October 3, 2017.

- Retail positioning has shifted dramatically in EUR/USD in recent days, with sentiment pointing towards the potential for more downside.

The Euro had another fairly unremarkable week of data and news flow, finishing in the middle of the pack among the major currencies covered by DailyFX Research. As the calendar turned into October and the fourth quarter, much of the Euro’s movement was the result of thematic influences for other currencies: UK Prime Minister Theresa May losing power and Brexit concerns rising; and Fed rate hike speculation surrounding the September US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Overall, Euro-Zone economic data remains strong relative to analysts’ expectations in recent weeks, as measured by the Citi Economic Surprise Index. The Euro-Zone CESI eased to +45.8 at the end of the week, down from +50.2 a week earlier, but up sharply from +19.6 on September 8.

Taking a look at price pressures, the 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, a measure of medium-term inflation (and one of ECB President Draghi’s preferred gauges) closed last week at 1.652%, higher than both the 1.618% reading a week earlier the 1.605% reading a month ago.

For the second week in a row, a quiet economic calendar leaves the Euro without significant drivers. Generally, the focus remains on the run-up to the October 26 European Central Bank policy meeting. As the September ECB meeting minutes showed, policymakers are almost ready to announce a reduction in the central bank’s stimulus measures. Notably, with ECB officials concerned about additional Euro strength, it seems that a taper to the QE program would be complemented by a shorter time horizon for the extension.

With Euro-Zone economic data trends and inflation expectations firming up, there is little reason to believe that the ECB Governing Council’s opinion regarding the state of the Euro-Zone economy and the need to taper their QE program will have changed that much in recent weeks, or will change that much with the light calendar ahead.

See our Q4’17 Euro forecast - check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES