We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Freeland says hard work on USMCA ratification being done $CAD
  • While $XAG might enjoy a bump if risk aversion picks up over the next few days, I think the medium-term trend lower remains intact Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/11/20/Silver-Price-Forecast-XAGUSD-May-Fall-Further-Despite-Risk-Aversion.html?CHID=9&QPID=917701 https://t.co/TkkZgHVnDW
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.08% Silver: -0.02% Gold: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4Lmt9Z4SQw
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 57.12 (+3.20%), ICE Brent Crude 62.47 (+2.53%), NYM NYH Gasoline 165.80 (+3.39%). [delayed]
  • RT @LiveSquawk: General Election Poll Shows Almost One In Five Labour Voters Are Considering Backing The Tories - Telegraph https://t.co/sQ…
  • The$USD is holding onto intraday gains after the release of October FOMC minutes which detailed that Federal Reserve officials are turning less dovish. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/vHZrOtsLxM https://t.co/TWkL6i83P5
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.95%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 80.93%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7mdqvPz6Aj
  • It might be an interesting couple of days for $USDCAD as it approaches resistance around 1.3350 Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/11/19/Canadian-Dollar-Forecast-USDCAD-CADJPY-NZDCAD-Levels.html?CHID=9&QPID=917701 https://t.co/heW76erBAs
  • Event risks for tomorrow includes the OECD economic outlook for the $EUR, the ECB account of October policy meeting, $CAD BOC Poloz chat in Toronto, and $JPY National CPI reading for October https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/NhekdGnYmq
  • RT @LJKawa: Today's tape reminded me of when we cared about North Korean nuclear tests for a hot second in 2017.
Euro May Fall on Soft Inflation, Dovish Draghi Comments

Euro May Fall on Soft Inflation, Dovish Draghi Comments

2017-06-24 02:23:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:
Euro May Fall on Soft Inflation, Dovish Draghi Comments

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish

  • Euro down move pauses after two weeks of aggressive selling
  • Soft inflation data dim hopes for further tapering of ECB QE
  • Dovish Draghi commentary may compound selling pressure

Looking for help with Euro trade ideas? Sign up for a Q&A webinar to discuss the outlook live!

The Euro paused to consolidate last week having faced heavy selling pressure though the first half of June, helped by a lull in heavy-hitting news flow. A barebones data docket leaves the single currency without obvious catalysts for much of next week but Friday’s inflation report may yet produce fireworks.

Baseline forecasts see the year-on-year inflation rate falling to 1.2 percent in June, the lowest yet this year. With last year’s recovery in crude oil prices now seemingly filtering out of CPI calculations, a downtick seems like a reasonable expectation. However, things may be more dire than expected.

News-flow out of the currency bloc has increasingly disappointed relative to analysts’ projections over the past two months. Price growth figures have borne out this general trend, although there have not been enough of them to truly make sweeping assumptions.

On balance, this hints that economists’ models are overstating the economy’s vigor as well as pricing power recovery potential, opening the door for a downside surprise. That is unlikely to play well with investors cautiously betting that the ECB will soon scale down the size of its monthly asset purchases again.

A soft print may go a long way toward boosting the credibility of the central bank’s decidedly dovish posture on the display in the immediate aftermath of its latest policy meeting. Indeed, President Mario Draghi may reiterate as much at the annual ECB Forum on Monday. All this bodes ill for the common unit.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.