News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.63%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/5dXf6fqsQz
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.41% Germany 30: 0.36% FTSE 100: 0.34% US 500: -0.05% Wall Street: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/fFsUz2EvOi
  • The US Dollar is continuing to strength today. The $DXY has risen above the 90.80 level to its highest point since last Wednesday. $USD https://t.co/OFWBlH3loM
  • quite the reversal in commod currencies over the past two days. $USDCAD from falling wedge support to resistance. this tl held a number of inflections earlier this month, now being tested through https://t.co/O2zqFkYz9Y https://t.co/Rljf0c6JE3
  • $USDCHF rose to trading above the 0.9100 level for the first time since November. $USD $CHF https://t.co/afJSa3Ap5h
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.86%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.99%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7CenEe3hcL
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a quick market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/9Sfqv1U0TJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -2.02% Gold: -2.70% Silver: -4.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pOc7rwbN4x
  • Forex Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.41% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.45% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.51% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.76% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.57% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.85% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/wtEBvYAAG2
  • A pullback off confluence uptrend support threatens a larger pullback here but keeps the broader trade constructive while within this formation. Get your $btc market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/ScHuboiZRB https://t.co/gNiGelWKTM
Another Light Economic Calendar Has Euro Following Global Risk Trends

Another Light Economic Calendar Has Euro Following Global Risk Trends

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Another Light Economic Calendar Has Euro Following Global Risk Trends

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral

- Biggest news for Euro last week was that ECB will deviate away from capital key ratio in asset purchases, not necessarily a surprise given what happened in December.

- EUR-crosses meandering around right now: best performing pair was EUR/GBP, +0.38%; worst performing pair was EUR/JPY, -0.59%

- Positioning in EUR/USD has narrowed over the past week, may be close to a turning point.

Despite the onslaught of headlines last week, the dull economic calendar and lack of significant drivers left the Euro mostly lifeless against its major counterparts, gaining no more than +0.38% (EUR/GBP) or losing more than -0.59% (EUR/JPY). The biggest developments came via central banks, with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reaffirming her stance that rate normalization is well under way, and with the European Central Bank’s January meeting minutes expressing the necessity for asset purchases to deviate from the capital key ratio. Neither development, of course, was a surprise, limiting the impact on the Euro itself; the Fed has made clear its intentions to raise rates at least twice this year time and again; and the ECB said in December 2016 that it would be materially changing the way its QE program was undertaken.

In the week ahead, despite the few economic data releases that are of some significance, they may not leave much an impact in their wakes. The preliminary February Euro-Zone (and individual country) PMI readings are due on Tuesday, but are not expected to show much movement from January (EZ Composite PMI due at 54.4, unchanged). The Euro-Zone CPI reading for January will be released on Wednesday, but is the second release of the data, and no changes are anticipated (headline at +1.8% y/y, core at +0.9% y/y, both unchanged). On Thursday, the second reading of the Q4’16 German GDP readings are due, and, staying with the theme of the week, no changes are anticipated from the first reading (+1.2% y/y).

Generally, underlying fundamental drivers for the Euro aren’t helping propel the single currency forward, which is something that should be monitored from a longer-term perspective. Euro-Zone economic data has started to disappoint relative to analysts’ expectations, as measured by the Citi Economic Surprise Index. The Euro-Zone CESI closed at +41.5 at the end of the week, down from +63.5 one-month earlier. The 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, a measure of medium-term inflation (and one of ECB President Draghi’s preferred gauges) closed last week at 1.768%, barely changed from 1.755% on January 20. Concurrently, Brent Oil prices have barely moved over the last month, closing at $55.81 on February 17 after closing at $55.49 on January 20.

Elsewhere, the relationship between yields and EUR/USD appears to be returning as a driver again. Recall that in the first week of November 2016, when EUR/USD traded near 1.1140, the German-US 2-year yield spread was roughly -145-bps. At the end of last week, with EUR/USD trading near 1.0616, the spread was -200-bps. While the 20-day correlation between EUR/USD and the German-US 2-year yield spread is currently a pedestrian +0.40, a shorter frequency confirms that the significance of relationship between EUR/USD and yieldsis increasing again: the 5-day correlation was +0.84 on February 17, up from +0.07 two-weeks earlier.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES