0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 5.06% Gold: 1.39% Oil - US Crude: 0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/FcWjbqvgkX
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Kaplan Speech due at 14:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
  • After hitting a new two-year high of 1.1916, EUR/USD is now trading in the middle of today’s range at 1.1865 and needs a new driver to make or break the recent rally. Get your $EURUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/EetZRs55q9 https://t.co/jxymBCa8rl
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.14% US 500: -0.19% Germany 30: -0.30% France 40: -0.77% FTSE 100: -1.45% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/suRP72SApO
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) due at 13:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.4% Previous: 3.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
  • 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (01/AUG) Actual: 1,186K Expected: 1415K Previous: 1434K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
  • 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (01/AUG) Actual: 1,337.75K Previous: 1368.5K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.82%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.11%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/8lwdCO7f8U
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.29% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.00% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/gpL0CBYyXO
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims (25/JUL) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 16720K Previous: 17018K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
Euro Traders Look to US Dollar for Next Major Moves

Euro Traders Look to US Dollar for Next Major Moves

2016-08-20 00:36:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:
Euro Traders Look to US Dollar for Next Major Moves

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

The Euro surged to multi-month highs versus the US Dollar despite a fairly uneventful week for both Europe and the US. And indeed the release of official minutes from both from both the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve’s recent meetings did little to alter market outlook. A fairly sparse economic calendar next week promises little in the way of foreseeable volatility, but the recent Euro rally makes it clear we can’t rule out sharp currency swings.

It would take major surprises out of the coming week’s European Markit PMI industry surveys or German IFO business confidence figures to elicit big reactions out of the EUR/USD.

Traders will need to look across the pond for a more likely market-mover in the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium starting August 26. The Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged and gave relatively little indication it would raise interest rates at its September meeting. And it feels like it was a very long time ago that expectations of Fed interest rate hikes fueled US Dollar gains.

A planned speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen should shed further light on whether the central bank will keep interest rates lower for longer, and overall risks seem weighed to the downside for US yields and the US Dollar itself. Fed Funds futures currently show a mere 20 percent chance the FOMC will raise interest rates at their September meeting, and the same contracts show only a 50 percent chance that rates will move higher through 2016. It feels like it has been a long time since the US central bank seemed likely to raise interest rates; the US Dollar has fallen fairly consistently as traders adjust to the prospect of lower yields. The Euro has been quick to benefit as it trades at multi-month highs.

The prospects for European interest rates are even worse than that of the US, however; at some point the Euro will need to trade on its own merits. Recent ECB rhetoric suggests the bank is in a “wait and see” mode as it does not want to ease monetary policy further until it sees further signs of persistently low inflation and growth. Its main refinancing rate already stands at 0.00% while its deposit facility rate is strongly negative at -0.40%. Further policy easing seems likely as Overnight Index Swaps predict 20 percent odds of a further rate cut in September. ECB officials have nonetheless expressed discomfort from cutting rates further into negative territory; at a certain point interest rate expectations may have little marginal effect on the EUR.

Event risk for the Euro remains low through the foreseeable future, and the next major move for the EUR/USD would likely come on surprises out of the US. In this sense, trading the EUR/USD seems roughly akin to trading the US Dollar Index. Volatility is certainly possible, but we’re not expecting much out of the EUR side of the trade for some time to come.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.