News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders in the Euro have a big decision to make this weekend: if EUR/USD hits 1.20, will it continue to advance, consolidate or fall back? Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/8hAhguZcEA https://t.co/kwtatozp3z
  • The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market's most clear-cut price action signals for reversals and continuation. Learn more about this price action trading signal here: https://t.co/Yg6ecRZZNr https://t.co/9SdceNYUEK
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/imv2PnapzH
  • Defensive stocks have proven critically important when navigating stock market volatility. Find out what are the most defensive stocks here:https://t.co/TMcbMALtbw https://t.co/mmldxxEtsc
  • Dollar Index has broken major uptrend support and risks accelerated losses into the December open. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/Txo8l8S1f1 https://t.co/YLVzP95JH8
  • The MACD is an indicator that uses exponential moving averages (EMA) to determine trend strength along with entry points based on crossovers. Find out how you can use the MACD as a buy/sell signal here: https://t.co/qxnP99uqTQ https://t.co/tGVqSZ2zK3
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/reMoYpqkQO
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/sqeRL7Rf7u
  • Cyclical and non-cyclical stocks can help diversify a trader’s equity portfolio. Get your guide to understanding these stocks here: https://t.co/h7BKTd2J8N https://t.co/ukOW0dWJxf
  • Beautifully put. https://t.co/0fBsmUH6Pb
Amid Holiday, EUR/USD Prepares for Huge First Week of December

Amid Holiday, EUR/USD Prepares for Huge First Week of December

2015-11-23 01:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:
Amid Holiday, EUR/USD Prepares for Huge First Week of December

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD:Bearish

- EUR/USD continues to track its daily 8-EMA lower as the downtrend from October 22 remains intact.

- EUR/JPY may be well positioned for a break to yearly lows during the rest of 2015.

- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the Euro, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a Euro currency basket.

With European Central Bank policymakers, in particular President Mario Draghi, paving the way for dovish action at their meeting on December, the Euro took another hit across the board last week. EUR/USD, after briefly flirting with a move towards $1.0800, closed the week at $1.0643. Markets are have been pricing in the events at the end of the first week of December, and for good reason: the ECB has its last policy meeting of 2015; Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives testimony in front of Congress; and the November US Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released. It’s going to be a very important few days.

Before then, we have an abnormal week ahead of us, with the US Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday, shuttering US bond and equities markets and leaving markets lacking liquidity all the while. In recent years, as is typical, the low liquidity conditions have led to sporadic price movements. These choppy conditions can prove to be a difficult environment to trade in. As such, especially given the expectations for the first week of December around the EUR-crosses, it's worth reviewing principles that help protect your capital. We call these principles the "Traits of Successful Traders."

The next few days bring only a light smattering of data relating directly to the Euro, but as they are not of the inflation variety, there impact may only prove passing for a brief few moments; it’s highly unlikely that any print, of even the data collectively this week, will be considered significant enough to have a material impact on the ECB policy meeting on December 3.

Preliminary November PMI data for Germany, France, and the broader Euro-Zone will be released on Monday and should prove only minor intraday catalysts. On Tuesday, the final Q3’15 German GDP report will be released, as will the November German IFO survey; the latter of these two data sets brings more “new” information table than the former, so we’ll be looking to that for a market concerted market response. Unlike last week, which was replete with ECB policymakers speaking, this week the calendar is largely absent of meaningful commentary.

As we keep our attention turned for the first Thursday and Friday of December, one aspect of the Euro’s recent decline worth watching is positioning among speculators in the futures market. As of the week of November 17, there was a build up to 164.2K net-short contracts from 142.9K net-short contracts for the week ended November 10. In context of prices, right after EUR/USD fell into its yearly low around $1.0460, speculators held 226.6K net-short contracts. It’s getting crowded in the short Euro trade, which means if the ECB disappoints, EUR/USD could be ripe for a short covering rally. –CV

To receive reports from this analyst, sign up for Christopher’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES