News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • Supply constraints, rebounding global demand and rising inflation expectations may drive crude oil prices higher in the near term. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • Crude Oil Prices Aiming Higher on OPEC Surprise, Inflation Expectations - $CL #Crudeoil #OOTT #OPEC
  • Given the size of the rally in the eleven months preceding the beginning of the current decline a broader sell-off looks warranted. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Rising yields and US Dollar creates a weak environment for gold, which trades at a 9-month low. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • RT @FxWestwater: US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: US Dollar Eyes Inflation Data After NFP Boost Link: $DXY https://…
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
Don’t Rule out $1.3700 for EUR/USD if ECB Sits Tight

Don’t Rule out $1.3700 for EUR/USD if ECB Sits Tight

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Don’t Rule out $1.3700 for EUR/USD if ECB Sits Tight

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

- EURGBP,EURJPY, and EURUSD are all at important technical crossroads ahead of the ECB meeting.

- The retail trading crowd ended the week net-short EURUSD, which we observe in a contrarian light.

- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the Euro, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a Euro currency basket.

More modest erosion in the EUR-complex although EURUSD continues to surprise, as the US Dollar’s own issues are preventing it from finding a veritable launching point. In the current yield hungry environment, the Euro, with its negative deposit rate of -0.1% thanks to the European Central Bank at its last meeting, has seemingly taken on a pseudo-funding currency role, having continuously declined against the commodity and emerging market currencies since early-June.

Whereas the June ECB meeting provided the catalyst necessary to provoke Euro movement once more – even if not against the US Dollar, against many of the other majors – this incoming meeting is more or less a check point in between major meetings, rather than the final destination sought after.

Per the ECB’s June meeting, a new interest rate regime was introduced, enhanced liquidity measures unrolled, and strengthened forward guidance unveiled. Considering that there hasn’t been nearly enough time for the rate cuts to make their way through the Euro-Zone economy and have an observable impact, the ECB will do little if anything along this front. Further to this point, recent June German core inflation numbers have exceeded expectations at +1.0% y/y from +0.6% y/y, underscoring the Governing Council-wide sentiment that prolonged low inflation, not necessarily deflation, is a risk.

The ECB will not take on anything more than a tone of guarded optimism, as simply not enough time has elapsed to declare victory or elsewise with respect to bringing the region back from the economic edge. To this end, the other aspects of the ECB’s June policy changes will be elaborated further on.

In terms of liquidity, greater detail should go into how the TLTROS (targeted LTROs) will be conducted. With the conditions to access the TLTROs likely to be a few low hurdles – the goal is to make flow of capital and credit creation easier, not harder – the Euro-Zone economy should see a tangible benefit resulting from these stimulus measures by the end of the year.

Forward guidance remains the easiest aspect of policy for the ECB to control, now that ABS purchases or a variation of QE is on the table should the inflation environment deteriorate further. That said, as we already mentioned in this article, recent inflation figures are moving higher, meaning the chance for large-scale asset purchases at this stage of the game is all but impossible.

We conclude with poignant commentary once again: "[QE] is possible, it is in the toolbox, but it isn't needed today," ECB executive board member Benoît Coeuré said on Friday, June 20. "We've been clear that in case inflation would be too low for too long, we can use additional instruments, including additional non-standard measures…"But we're not in that situation today. So I think there is no disagreement with the IMF." Some more pseudo-optimistic commentary from the ECB this week and the EURUSD could very well be on its way back into the $1.3700s. –CV

To receive reports from this analyst, sign up for Christopher’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.