News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $GBPNZD could be poised to extend its run to fresh yearly lows as price struggles to break back above the 78.6% Fib (1.9024) A push to challenge the 88.6% Fib (1.8676) looks on the cards if sellers can drive price below the November low (1.8896) $GBP $NZD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/DlRb2haxL6
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.09%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.74%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/OiM0irh4dG
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Business Confidence (NOV) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 41.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
  • Stock diversification can help investors through volatile periods within the stock markets. Get your guide to stock diversification here: https://t.co/is594vNNcT https://t.co/kUxUFk5TW0
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 3.23% Gold: 1.67% Oil - US Crude: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/EOQKtjK8EG
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.31% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.29% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.23% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.12% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/eI4xtkV6Gd
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 1.55% Wall Street: 1.19% US 500: 1.15% Germany 30: 0.73% France 40: 0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/UwXqB3FED1
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here: https://t.co/AKmlmaAZBS https://t.co/lpeiULx9Wq
  • #Gold prices recovering lost ground after collapsing to the lowest levels in over 4 months Breaking back above the 200-DMA (1799) could inspire a more extended rally and bring the September low (1848) into play. #XAUUSD #bullion https://t.co/npQWLB7Ywo https://t.co/EGbqmv2bjp
  • 💶 Inflation Rate YoY Flash (NOV) Actual: -0.3% Expected: -0.2% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
Europe’s Relative Calm Boosting Interest in the Euro

Europe’s Relative Calm Boosting Interest in the Euro

2013-10-26 08:25:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:
Europes_Relative_Calm_Boosting_Interest_in_the_Euro_body_Picture_1.png, Europe’s Relative Calm Boosting Interest in the Euro

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bullish

- The weak September US NFP report helped lift the EURUSD to new 2013 highs.

- The Euro was able to rebound against the commodity currencies as tensions in Chinese markets arose.

- Mixed PMI surveys didn’t deter Euro bulls – sign of evolving sentiment?

The Euro was the second best performing currency this week overall, gaining another +0.84% against the US Dollar and closing above $1.3800 (1.3802 in New York on Friday) for the first time since November 2011. The recent theme dominating Euro trading continued to persist: as long as there are signs of a continued economic recovery, the Euro should have the opportunity to rally with the European Central Bank remaining on the sidelines.

The Euro’s gains this week extended beyond the safe have complex which hadn't been the case in weeks past, although the outperformance exhibited against the commodity currencies (the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars) wasn’t necessarily due to incoming economic data performing in excess of expectations. Rather, risk aversion remained elevated in the wake of the US fiscal deal, though emanating from Asia (Chinese liquidity concerns), not North America (US fiscal and monetary uncertainty).

Market participants are seemingly adjusting their outlook on the Euro in a more positive light as these international issues bubble up. Although October French, German, and broader Euro-Zone PMI survey data slipped overall from September (signaling slower growth), the simple fact that growth conditions remain buoyed seemed to be the ‘big picture’ takeaway, as the Euro ultimately rallied on this week’s mixed data releases.

Even if the Chinese liquidity concerns abate thereby removing a negative fundamental influence on the commodity currencies, the Euro appears poised to perform well in its own right as incoming economic data looks set to restart its slow rebound. The German GfK Confidence Survey for November on Tuesday should improve, signaling that consumers in the Euro-Zone’s largest economy see an improving economy over the coming month. A beat here (7.2 expected from 7.1) would lay the groundwork for positivity around the Euro at the start of the week.

Wednesday’s economic docket poses the most risk to the Euro, though the expected uptick in volatility resulting from the data releases may prove to favor further Euro gains. The 3Q’13 Spanish GDP report will be released on Wednesday, and while the yearly figure should show a continued recession (-1.2% from -1.6% (y/y)), the quarterly reading may show meager growth (+0.1% from -0.1% (q/q)) for the first time since the 1Q’11 (+0.2%). While these data hardly suggest the crisis is over, the psychological effect of seeing positive growth figures in the periphery may be significant.

Alongside the rebound in peripheral growth data, German labor market data for October on Wednesday should show that the labor market weakness evident the past few months may have been alleviated. The German economy tends to lead the Euro-Zone; and therefore signs that Germany’s labor market is no longer weakening at present time will help bolster confidence in the broader region’s economic rebound through the end of the year.

Overall, the Euro economic calendar for the coming week paints a picture of improving growth, with the lull that set in towards the end of the summer now working its way out of the regional economy. One can’t dismiss the impact that the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting might have on the Euro as well; although with the Fed’s stance arguably becoming more dovish at a time when the ECB remains in neutral, we suspect that a hold of QE3 at $85B/month will prove EUR-positive once again. –CV

To receive reports from this analyst, sign up for Christopher’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES