0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US #Dollar may rise, buoyed by haven demand as fiscal stimulus talks stagnate and swelling tensions between Washington and Beijing sink trade talks. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Wcw9PDUr67 https://t.co/gnYZYl6aLV
  • Upside in #CrudeOil struggling ahead of #OPEC meeting. Cartel likely to maintain wait and see approach. Get your #commodities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/gNHHKoTUzm https://t.co/eF40DRIBJ5
  • #Gold had some big moves last week, and while vol is expected to die down a bit, it will be important to see if gold can hold its ground in the coming days/weeks. Get your #metals update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/N8a84hRnHN https://t.co/3fjodPHTDm
  • The S&P 500's refusal to hit a record and Dollar's anchor to range this past week is sign of summer liquidity conditions, but the quiet is not insurmountable. 'S&P 500 Record and Dollar Break Look to Stimulus and Trade to Override Seasonality' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/15/SP-500-Record-and-Dollar-Break-Look-to-Stimulus-and-Trade-to-Override-Seasonality-.html https://t.co/mbvPkdQfYl
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkcMZBK https://t.co/kFk6ccU3Sk
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/aXSB0bG3y0
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/1G7CRsegRX https://t.co/i342ipPuvW
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tHp0Nb3Tr5
  • USD/JPY is bucking the trend in USD weakness, tentatively putting it on a path towards higher levels. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/RnrBCFE3gt https://t.co/hTSdTcIwZY
  • The Canadian Dollar gained with government bond yields. Might USD/CAD find its way to current 2020 lows? Canada’s benchmark stock index, the TSX Composite, faces the March high.Get your $USDCAD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/0Ba8E2S7vC https://t.co/JLUTzF6xlY
Forex Analysis: Without ECB Action, Euro Set to Disappoint Coming Week

Forex Analysis: Without ECB Action, Euro Set to Disappoint Coming Week

2013-01-05 00:56:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:
Forex_Analysis_Without_ECB_Action_Euro_Set_to_Disappoint_Coming_Week_body_EURUSD.jpg, Forex Analysis: Without ECB Action, Euro Set to Disappoint Coming Week

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish

- Staying Short EUR/AUD After Trading into a Near-term Top

- Euro Continues to Struggle as Yen Leads as US Fiscal Tensions Linger

- Euro Searching for Support

The Euro was one of the worst performing currencies this past week, losing ground to all the majors but for the Japanese Yen, an unremarkable feat by any stretch of the imagination. Commodity currencies were particularly strong against the Euro this past week, with the Euro losing -2.59% to the top New Zealand Dollar, -2.17% to the Australian Dollar, and -2.13% to the Canadian Dollar. Largely, this was due to the relief the US fiscal cliff being avoided, allowing investors breathing room to take on more risk; naturally, the higher yielding currencies were desired.

But with so many issues that plagued the Euro and risk-appetite in general during the middle of 2012 seemingly like a distant memory, is the Euro set to resume its rally? Possibly, but not this week; we hold a “bearish” bias ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday for two crucial reasons.

First, the Euro itself: as per the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report for the week ending January first, futures positioning showed that traders had unwound the short EURUSD positioning; net-longs totaled 5126, while net-shorts totaled 2549. Put another way, the short trade is no longer crowded. This is important when considered in context of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting Minutes, which showed some divergence in opinion among Fed Governors as to when QE3 ($85B/month in agency MBS purchases and outright Treasury purchases) would end; this has boosted appeal for the US Dollar, as confirmed by the rise in both the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) and US Treasury yields. While the Fed’s QE3 program will not end anytime soon, perception is often reality, and the chatter alone about QE3 ending ahead of previous expectations has tilted near-term positivity in favor of the US Dollar, not the Euro. There is sufficient fundamental reason to believe the EURUSD could decline over the coming weeks given this perspective.

Secondly, the ECB Rate Decision on Thursday offers little hope for any bullish motivation for the Euro. Ever since the September policy meeting, at which President Mario Draghi announced the OMT program to help keep Italian and Spanish borrowing costs down, each subsequent meeting has produced little positivity, as there has yet to be a reason for the ECB to enter the market: the EURUSD fell by -24-pips on the day of the November meeting; and the EURUSD fell by -98-pips on the day of the December meeting. With no change in policy expected, a continuation of this pattern is likely.

Finally, when looking at the rest of the data picture, there’s little reason to be optimistic – the major data releases are expected to show deflation (Euro-zone Producer Price Index (NOV) on Monday) and a worsening labor market (Euro-zone Unemployment Rate (NOV) on Tuesday). Fundamentally, Euro optimism may be exhausted, and this week, like the second week of January 2012, could produce further downside price action. –CV

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.