News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $ES from resistance to support now at the weekly low, testing a few different support elements here, also a 618 $SPX
  • The $SPX is going to keep it interesting for us through this final trading session. The 50-day SMA is under strain, its 'quad witching' today, evergreen uncertainty over weekend and FOMC on the threat radar
  • The S&P 500 and its counterparts are leaning into support as the end of the week nears. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses the possibility of a break before next week's FOMC and Evergrande deadline!
  • You're Not The Only One Bored Of 'New' Apple iPhones via @IBDinvestors
  • $USDCAD big test, right at the Sept. high
  • just about an hour later $USDCAD
  • Hedging Evergrande (3333 HK) is reportedly a near impossible task
  • Given there is a substantial risk from China's Evergrande situation with a possible technical default at the start of next week, I'll be watching Bitcoin as a 'risk' measure over the weekend. Here versus SPX as Shanghai Comp is 'tended to'
  • The latest batch of US economic data suggests the economy is weathering delta variant concerns, increasing odds for a Fed taper announcement shortly. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • $USD support hold at higher low $DXY now breakout after U of Mich Focus now shifts to the Fed for next week's rate decision. Quarterly meeting, so also getting an updated dot plot matrix and SEP
Forex: EUR/USD Just Below 1.3200 Without Major Threats…Or Catalysts

Forex: EUR/USD Just Below 1.3200 Without Major Threats…Or Catalysts

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Forex_EURUSD_Just_Below_13200_Without_Major_Threats_Or_Catalysts_body_Picture_5.png, Forex: EUR/USD Just Below 1.3200 Without Major Threats…Or Catalysts

EUR/USD Just Below 1.3200 Without Major Threats…Or Catalysts

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish

The euro’s strength was robust and broadly distributed this past week. A combination of general (though modest) improvement in economic data, the loose adoption of an EU bank supervisor and the long-awaited approval for Greece’s aid distribution generated enough optimism to lift the currency against all of its counterparts. It’s performance ranged between the barely changed EURCHF (laden by regional capital flows) and the impressive 3.0 percent surge from EURJPY (helped out by an exceptionally weak yen). Helped along by a positive bearing on global investor sentiment, the Euro has leverage fundamentals to remarkable effect. Yet after the aggressive rally to multi-month and multi-year highs, we find that the burden for follow through has risen substantially – just we’ve run out of big-ticket catalysts.

It has taken a tremendous amount of lift to drive the euro to the heights that it scaled last week. Most prominent is the EURUSD which has risen to test the highs set in March along with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its 2011-to-2012 bear trend at 1.3150. While the benchmark pair has officially marked its highest intraday level and daily close in over seven months, it hasn’t fully cleared the next stage to extend its bull run into a systemic trend. This technical view is a fitting reflection of the fundamental and market conditions that the FX market faces moving forward.

To assess our next move, we should first appreciate what it took to wrench the euro to the heights it currently finds itself at. There were a series of economic releases this past week that could at best be described as ‘better-than-expected’. The bulk of the currency’s move was founded on relief. The risk that Greece could either default or exit the Eurozone (or both) tapped into an elemental fear of over the inviolability of the economic collective and its currency. Slowly, however, that threat has abated. The shift began back in July after an EU Summit laid out programs to support struggling members. When the ECB announced a potentially unlimited safety net in its OMT program, the pressure on the euro further eased. This past week, the approval of Greece’s next round of aid was the next step. After an initial short-fall on the bond buyback program, the market saw that the country would meet the target necessary to trigger support as the week wore on. By Thursday, the EU announced an immediate dispersal of €34.3 billion and monthly payouts afterwards.

Delivering aid to Greece removes the euro out of immediate peril, but it is interesting to note that the currency barely advanced after the news. The market had priced in this outcome well before hand as the alternative would have been politically unpalatable. Yet, now we have found the relief the market had priced in before hand and bought Greece a number of months of calm before another serious shock could show up. Risk has been removed. Shouldn’t the euro be wide open to rally now? Not necessarily. While Greece may no longer be an immediate threat, there really isn’t a convincing argument of strength to be made for bidding the euro. What we have seen from July was in essence a series of relief rallies spurred on by the anticipation of and reaction to stabilizing policy. And, we have run out of catalysts…

In trader parlance, we have ‘reduced the tail risk’ – or as policy officials say, “there is no longer a crisis of confidence in the euro’. Yet, that isn’t a standalone reason to be bullish. Investors are not naïve enough to believe that this one approval will secure Greece or the Eurozone for good. What’s more, neglected concerns may start to come back to the forefront. Spain’s funding issues are national, regional and banking sector-wide; and there has been little genuine progress made beyond a fortunate easing of bond yields. An election in Italy highlights the country’s debt load. Ireland will release 3Q GDP next week to remind us of the underlying economic issues are. And, perhaps most concerning of all, Portugal has built up a call for ‘equal treatment’ – access to the ‘one-off’ same accommodation as Greece.

These are all medium-term concerns, but the euro’s bearings the coming week are more likely to defer to the shorter-term issues. Volume and participation are fading into the end of the year and the risk appetite run will lose steam. The euro is amongst the most stretched…–JK

New to FX? Watch this Video (Initial login required)

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.