News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here:
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • Even more remarkable than the record high levels of leverage registered in US equities this past week was the attention it garnered. Paying attention to risk is a threat when markets are this high and the docket as dense as it is this week. My outlook:
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here:
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here:
  • USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
Euro Surges Despite Existential Threats – Does it Survive Week Ahead?

Euro Surges Despite Existential Threats – Does it Survive Week Ahead?

David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Euro_Surges_Despite_Existential_Threats_Does_it_Survive_Week_Ahead_body_Picture_1.png, Euro Surges Despite Existential Threats – Does it Survive Week Ahead?

Euro Surges Despite Existential Threats – Does it Survive Week Ahead?

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish

The Euro posted its single-largest weekly advance against the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) since February as a new bond buying plan from the European Central Bank eased Euro Zone tensions and forced many speculators out of their short positions.

Yet the Euro isn’t out of the woods yet: a critical German court ruling on the legality of European bailouts could rule recent ECB efforts null, while a potentially pivotal US Federal Open Market Committee decision could force substantial FX volatility.

The ECB announced unlimited bond purchases for at-risk governments via the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program, and yields on 10-year Spanish Government bonds fell by their most in at least 20 years on the news. Yet the ECB put a clear caveat on the “unlimited” support; any given country would need to submit to the terms of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) or the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to receive aid from the central bank. The critical provision may prove a tough pill to swallow for the country in clearest need of fiscal aid—Spain.

The Spanish government has instituted deeply unpopular fiscal austerity measures in a bid to stabilize Spain’s balance sheet, but they would almost certainly be forced by the EFSF/ESM to institute further belt tightening despite overseeing a domestic economy mired in recession. The material bounce in Spanish bond prices/drop in yields suggests that most view plans as favorable. It’s nonetheless obvious that Spain and the Euro Zone are not out of the woods just yet.

A highly-anticipated German Constitutional Court ruling due September 12 could ultimately render debates over the ECB’s bond buying irrelevant. European bailouts have always been deeply unpopular in Euro zone paymaster Germany, and legal challenges against the ESM will come to a head as its highest court rules on its legality.

FX Options markets show that traders are paying surprisingly little for Euro/US Dollar volatility, and that fact in itself suggests that most put low odds on an adverse German ruling. But the existential threat to the Euro as a currency remains real, and we can’t ignore the possibility that the court could effectively undo endless efforts to keep the European Monetary Union intact.

If the Euro survives the German ruling on the 12th, it will look to a highly-anticipated US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision to drive further volatility on the 13th. Sharply disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls data for August increased odds that the FOMC would vote for further Quantitative Easing (QE3) measures and effectively print US Dollars to boost growth. Some claim that there is a 50% chance of QE3 on the Sept 13 announcement, and the Dollar’s reaction to disappointing NFPs data suggests it stands to fall further on such an announcement (sending EURUSD higher).

There’s a lot riding on the week ahead, and it will be critical to watch whether the recent wave of Euro/US Dollar short-covering continues on make-or-break event risk out of Europe and the US economy through the second week of post-summer trading. – DR

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.