We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • Philippine keeps CPI assumption through 2020 at 2%-4%, latest estimates on 2020-2022 GDP growth at 6.5% to 7.5% -BBG $USDPHP #PHP #BSP
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.04% Silver: -0.18% Oil - US Crude: -0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LgsPNfcKsp
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/OY4a8ADSNd
  • Missed this week's session on IG Client Sentiment? Check out the recording on YouTube below! - https://t.co/89A37fRLyg
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.16%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MkBuM9u61U
  • On the first day of holiday movies, John McClane had to say, "welcome to the party and yippee-ki-yay"
  • #NZDJPY Technical Outlook: Bearish Correction Ahead? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/12/11/NZDJPY-Technical-Outlook-Bearish-Correction-Ahead.html
  • Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga: Paying close attention to the economy after the sales tax hike -BBG
  • $USDCNH https://t.co/huK7xAti8U
  • RT @zerohedge: Yuan Tumbles After Navarro Warns "No Indication That Tariffs Will Be Delayed" https://t.co/mQlQTiQjgM
Euro at Impasse versus US Dollar: Further Losses or Sharp Bounce?

Euro at Impasse versus US Dollar: Further Losses or Sharp Bounce?

2010-03-05 23:29:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Business Development
After a surprisingly lackluster financial market reaction to bullish US Nonfarm Payrolls data, one wonders whether limited event risk in the coming days can force substantive moves in the Euro/US Dollar pair. In fact, there are virtually zero traditionally market-moving events on the calendar. Possible exceptions will include German Industrial Production data on Monday, German Trade Balance figures the following day, and a European Central Bank monthly report on Thursday. None of these is expected to show any substantive shift and it would be a stretch to claim that traders should closely monitor said releases. Yet it is impossible to predict sudden price moves in financial markets, and we can only make best guesses as to when volatile price moves can occur. 
It otherwise remains critical to monitor any and all developments in the Greek fiscal debt crisis. Greece’s recent steps to announce further cuts in spending and increased taxes seem to have placated markets. The Greek government successfully auctioned off €5 billion in fresh debt—something almost unthinkable just a short while ago. Vague pledges of support from the European Central Bank and Germany have likewise buoyed sentiment. Yet one has to wonder whether this is a temporary lull in distress and further signs of domestic civil unrest make proposed budget cuts untenable. Whatever the short-term outcome, we do not believe that Euro Zone sovereign debt problems will go away with one successful bond auction. It remains important to watch for more long-term solutions to ongoing regional political issues. 
The Euro is at somewhat of an impasse. It remains in a fairly pronounced medium-term downtrend against the US Dollar in the context of many years of strength. A recent surge in Non-Commercial short interest in the EUR/USD suggests that losses may slow. Indeed, extremely one-sided EUR short positioning suggests that a sharp pullback would invite short-covering and pronounced rallies. Suffice it to say, traders should remain alert despite ostensibly limited event risk in the week ahead. – DR

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.