News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Further your trading knowledge and gain informed market analyses from our expert analyst @DavidJSong on Oil with our free Q4 guide, available for free today.
  • Nasdaq 100 may hit new high soon.
  • HSTECH index has likely formed an "Inverse Head & Shoulders" pattern.
  • The HSI has likely formed a “Double Bottom” chart pattern, which is usually viewed as bullish-biased.
  • When markets are falling, how can you short sell? Learn more here:
  • Futures have their own set of characteristics and appeal to different types of traders and investors for a variety of reasons. Get your free trading guide and learn to trade the markets with futures here. Download your guide today!
  • Relative stability in EUR/USD has masked weakness in the Euro against most other major currencies, and that weakness can be expected to persist in the week ahead and likely for longer. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • Gold prices moved higher last week, but an upbeat US retail sales report underpinned Treasury yields on Friday, which weighed on bullion. Chinese Q3 GDP is in focus for XAU traders. Get your weekly gold forecast from @FxWestwater here:
  • Equity traders often focus their approach on specific sectors, designed to fit with their approach and style. What sector are you going to target? Read more to find out!
Gold Prices Eye CPI as Non-Farm Payrolls Miss, Rising Wages Complicate Fed Outlook

Gold Prices Eye CPI as Non-Farm Payrolls Miss, Rising Wages Complicate Fed Outlook

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist
Please add a description for the image.

Gold Fundamental Forecast - Bearish

  • Gold prices marked time this past week, but outlook remains bearish
  • Non-farm payrolls miss saw higher wages, which may bolster inflation
  • XAU/USD eyeing US CPI data as Fed may start tapering in November

Anti-fiat gold pricestraded relatively flat this past week, but the fundamental outlook for XAU/USD remains tilted to the downside. At the end of the day, September’s non-farm payrolls report probably does little to derail Federal Reserve tapering expectations. Investors are anticipating the central bank to begin the process at the November rate decision.

While the world’s largest economy only added 194k jobs last month, there are signs that the labor market is facing supply-side issues. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.8% from 5.2%. Economists were anticipating a drop to 5.1%. This might have been partially explained by the decline in the labor force participation rate to 61.6% from 61.7% prior.

Ultimately, this appears to be complicating the Fed’s outlook. Average hourly earnings continued rising, climbing 4.6% y/y versus 4.3% prior. Softer-than-anticipated payroll gains could slow the pace of economic recovery, but higher wages may continue bolstering inflation. The latter might be what is keeping prospects of Fed tapering intact.

On the chart below, I have compared wages versus core inflation. In fact, the US will release the latest inflation figures this coming week. The headline and core rate are expected to clock in at 5.3% and 4.0% y/y respectively for September. Ongoing elevated readings above the Fed’s target may keep the door open to Fed lose policy unwinding.

US Average Hourly Earnings Vs. Core CPI

Gold Prices Eye CPI as Non-Farm Payrolls Miss, Rising Wages Complicate Fed Outlook

Chart Created in TradingView

Ultimately, these forces may bode ill for the non-interest-bearing yellow metal. A combination of rising Treasury yields, and a stronger US Dollar, may keep pressuring gold prices. Or at the very least, cap upside XAU/USD potential. On the chart below, gold can be seen tending to inversely follow bond yields and the direction of the US Dollar as of late.

Gold Vs. US Dollar and 10-Year Treasury Yield

Gold Prices Eye CPI as Non-Farm Payrolls Miss, Rising Wages Complicate Fed Outlook

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.