News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.45% US 500: 0.20% France 40: -0.10% Germany 30: -0.25% FTSE 100: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via
  • $EURCAD has continued to head lower today, now trading right around the 1.5000 level. The pair hit a fresh one-year low, currently trading at its lowest level since early March of last year. $EUR $CAD
  • US Indices are rebounding from last week's sell off today. The Dow is leading the way, rising to a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq remains negative for the day. DOW +2.00% NDX -0.55% SPX +0.91% RUT +1.70% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • Another look at the deviation in 'internal' interest in US equities: the candle is the Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 ratio ($NDX-$SPX) overlaid with the S&P 500 itself in blue
  • A notable deviation in direction from the tech-heavy Nadex composite (candle) overlaid with the S&P 500 in blue. The 5-day correlation is still holding up but will start deviating fast at this pace
  • $USD has been pretty strong over the past couple of weeks and to a lesser degree, so far in 2021 but we've only retraced about 23.6% of that massive sell-off that started last March $DXY
  • EUR/USD trades to a fresh yearly low (1.1857) as longer-dated US Treasury yields continue to push above pre-pandemic levels. Get your $EURUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • USD/MXN has continued to rip in 2021, flying in the face of the bearish trend from 2020. Get your $USDMXN market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • $USDMXN strong breakout from the falling wedges that had built coming into this year. Prices now finding resistance at 50% marker of the 2017-2020 major move whether looking for usd strength or weakness, there's attractive items on $USDMXN for either
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.37%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 81.20%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
Gold Versus Real Yields: Are Inflation Bets Fully Priced Into XAU/USD?

Gold Versus Real Yields: Are Inflation Bets Fully Priced Into XAU/USD?

Thomas Westwater, Analyst
Gold Chart 2 hour

Chart created with TradingView

Gold Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • Rising real yields have dirtied the yellow metal’s luster
  • Gold fails to follow increasingly bullish bets on inflation
  • Inflation-adjusted gold prices near historical highs, where next?
Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Recommended by Thomas Westwater
Get Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast
Get My Guide

Gold edged higher on Friday as the US Dollar weakened, ending the week on a positive note following seven consecutive down days for the precious metal. Still, the yellow metal recorded its worst weekly performance since early January, falling close to 2.5%. One reason for the recent weakness is rising treasury yields, more specifically, rising real yields.

Gold (XAU/USD) 6-Hour Price Chart

Gold price chart

Chart created with TradingView

Real yields – nominal bond yields minus the breakeven inflation outlook – have risen as investors price in a $1.9 trillion Covid relief package. While the proposed stimulus has bolstered inflation bets, it appears to have propelled sentiment surrounding an economic rebound relatively further. Hence the pace at which we have seen real yields rise as investors ditch government bonds.

Nevertheless, inflation-adjusted Treasury yields remain near historic lows despite the recent ascent. Conventional market understanding suggests gold prices may continue to drop if this trend continues. Investors are shifting capital into riskier assets as the reflation theme strengthens. As government debt is ditched for riskier assets, bond yields increase, which in turn attracts investors away from the non-interest bearing gold.

Gold vs inflation

So, what about gold as an inflation hedge? Inflation bets are rising, but inflation itself remains elusive. Consumer prices may very well rise – especially considering the amount of stimulus being pumped into the financial system. However, inflation-adjusted gold prices (gold/CPI) are already near historical highs as shown in the chart below.

Inflation-adjusted gold price

The impact from rising inflation bets may have already done as much as it can to support gold prices. Tangible and substantial increases to inflation may be needed before gold gains its luster back. The upside, if any, is likely limited for now. That said, next week’s US PCE figures may provide some direction for the yellow metal, although the month over month change is expected to cross the wires at 0.1%, according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar.


--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.