News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/hQgZB9T73q
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10CKUR https://t.co/9JVh6BsWa2
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/ZDuee58Abe
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/niJL2W2yXV
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/0rNbbrd58e
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/zPzJAxBJxt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
Gold May Surrender on Lockdowns, Vice Presidential Debate, Fiscal Stimulus Stalemate

Gold May Surrender on Lockdowns, Vice Presidential Debate, Fiscal Stimulus Stalemate

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

Gold Fundamental Outlook: Bearish

  • Gold prices could fall if lockdown policies hurt economic growth and inflation prospects
  • Ongoing US fiscal stimulus talks adding additional uncertainty to US political landscape
  • First vice presidential debate may push XAU/USD higher if Kamala Harris outperforms

Coronavirus Spike Pressuring Lawmakers to Extend or Reimpose Lockdowns

Coronavirus cases continue to rise not only in the United States – the epicenter of Covid-19 – but also around the world, prompting governments to reimpose or extend economically-crippling lockdown policies. While economic data and financial markets swiftly recovered after both cratered in March, the initial rally appears to now be fizzling out as the effects of the stimulus measures that arguably propelled it to these levels wane.

Covid-19 cases now stand at a little over 1 million, and protestors are starting to erupt. This is not only due to social turbulence – e.g. race relations, a topic of the first US presidential debate – but also from citizens who oppose extended and stricter shelter-in-place orders. Measures that contain the virus may come at the cost of revived economic activity, risking an extended and bumpy recovery.

Inflation expectations are reflecting a more pessimistic view of price growth after surging from March through late-July/early-August. Not entirely by coincidence, gold – an anti-fiat hedge – also spiked in part from expectations of rising price growth but also from a weaker US Dollar. However, with this dynamic now wilting, demand for the precious metal may be substituted for highly-liquid havens like the Greenback.

Fiscal Stimulus Stalemate May Rattle Confidence

Another factor that may cause investors to scuttle away from gold and into caves of comparatively less-risky assets is the ongoing statement between Republicans and Democrats over another stimulus package. The cost of the negative externality of bipartisan intransigence is being incurred by investors and economists who fear that without additional aid, economic activity may sharply contract.

Democrats are looking to put through a $2.2 trillion stimulus package with some provisions to make it palatable for their colleagues across the aisle. Having said that, reconciling the Trump administration’s stance on not going above approximately $1.6t for another stimulus package may be a stalling point that spoils risk appetite. In that scenario, gold prices may retreat if risk aversion ensues.

Vice Presidential Debate May Catalyze Market Volatility

Market volatility may also be amplified by uncertainty about the outcome of the first vice presidential debate on October 7. Senator Kamala Harris will be going up against Trump’s vice Mike Pence with Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today Susan Page as the moderator of the debate.

If the outcome of the debate swings more in Ms. Harris’ favor, based on previous analysis, it could help lift market mood if it increases Biden’s popularity. In the coming weeks, political uncertainty as it relates to the 2020 election may continue to weigh on sentiment, potentially endangering gold prices from retesting their all-time high at 2075.14.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES