We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • 🇬🇧 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (SEP), Actual: N/A Expected: 435b Previous: 435b https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • 🇬🇧 GBP Bank of England Bank Rate (SEP 19), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.75% Previous: 0.75% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • European parliament favours Breixt extension if one is to be requested $GBP
  • Having a consistent trading strategy can’t be understated when it comes to the process of trading. How can having a consistent strategy avoid #FOMOintrading? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/f4y1FOOZnM https://t.co/2QHVgRlMc7
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 13) due at 11:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 2.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-18
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.42%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ReHxHQMPBJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.01% Oil - US Crude: -0.45% Silver: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/rq2EKnzq0p
  • Bitcoin breakout nears...#bitcoin #btc https://t.co/5si6ROEIBy
  • EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Technical Forecast: Failure at Crucial Resistance More details in the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-jpy/2019/09/18/EURUSD-EURJPY-Technical-Forecast-Failure-at-Crucial-Resistance-MK.html https://t.co/9sYz3Ee5wq
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.14% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.20% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.25% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.40% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.47% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/kYlPKUJuaW
Gold Price Forecast: Positive Outlook But Downside Risks Remain

Gold Price Forecast: Positive Outlook But Downside Risks Remain

2019-09-07 16:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

Gold 2-Hour Price Chart

Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

Q3 2019 Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities

The weekly gold forecast is neutral with a mildly bullish tilt. The US-China trade war rumbles on, driving risk-off sentiment, while Chinese and US monetary policy may well fuel further risk-on sentiment. On balance it may be best to stick to the sidelines at these current, elevated levels.

Gold has traded in a $50/oz. range during the week but is closing relatively unchanged over the last five days with a slightly bullish momentum helping to re-coup losses. Market volatility has again been driven by the US and China, with trade war rhetoric early in the week giving way to the liquidity measures and interest rate cut expectations as the week ends.

At the start of the week there were mildly positive noises around the ongoing US-China trade war with both sides agreeing to meet this month. While all ‘noise’ around the trade dispute should be treated with caution, any positive move would give the market a sharp risk-on boost and push the price of gold back below $1,500/oz. Risk-on was also given a nudge after Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam withdrew the contentious extradition bill that had fueled months of street protests. While a positive, protests are expected to continue as Ms. Lam refuses to give in to the protesters other four demands.

The end of the week saw monetary policy rear its head with China announcing a cut to its reserve ratio requirement (RRR), the third time this year. The measures should free up Chinese banks’ balance sheets to lend around another 800 billion yuan (USD120 billion) to boost the economy, especially important as the US-China trade war rumbles on.

Friday’s mixed US Labor Report will have interested US President Donald Trump as job growth slowed while wages grew. The Fed is fully expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% at the September 18 FOMC meeting but the President wants more, and today’s jobs figures will give him more ammunition to press down on the Fed for further cuts. A weaker US dollar - helped by lower interest rates - boosts gold allure.

The calendar next week shows three high importance data releases in the US - all potential US dollar movers - while there will be no more Fed speak ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Economic Calendar

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Overall, the market is likely to remain at, or close to, current levels with a slight upside bias. Thursday sell-off caught bulls off-guard yet today’s post-NFP rebound continues to suggest that bulls remain in control of the market and continue to buy dips for now.

Gold Price Daily Chart (March – September 6, 2019)

Gold Price Daily Chart

The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail traders are 64.5% net-long of Gold, a bearish contrarian bias. However daily and weekly changes give us a stronger spot Gold bearish trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.