We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/FLjrTlG6U5
  • #EURUSD pivot points (daily) – S3: 1.0996, S2: 1.1051, S1: 1.107, R1: 1.1125, R2: 1.1161, 3: 1.1216 - https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Heads up traders! The Bank of Japan (#BoJ) is due at an unspecified time during Tuesday's Asia Pacific session. In 2019, the window for this event ranged anywhere between 2:39 - 3:27 GMT. Past performance is not indicative of future results #Yen $USDJPY 😁
  • The most interesting and largely overlooked net speculative futures readings comes from $USDMXN which has pushed to a record low - giving some serious pause to this tentative, multi-year wedge breakdown https://t.co/Qnpdw6BURp
  • One of the more extreme, 'shorter term' speculative futures position statuses is that for $GBPUSD: https://t.co/cHVPMcgKoY
  • Net speculative gold positioning is still hovering at net long records - a similar refusal to ease up reflected in the commodity's price ($GC_F) https://t.co/YQsDxWsLrL
  • The $NZDUSD sentiment outlook is bearish, how appropriate given that prices recently took out a near-term rising support line from November ahead of this week's NZ CPI report. To learn more about this tool, join me on Wednesdays at 1:00 GMT here #NZD - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/998956395?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/QN7G4MW2Mu
  • Net speculative futures positioning behind the Dollar has dropped far far further than the $DXY itself. Will price or positioning close the gap? https://t.co/LM25g00PJP
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.14% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Ws5mUElh5q
  • RT @RichDvorakFX: $USD $DXY | US Dollar Faces Bearish Fundamental Headwinds from the Fed & Trade https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2020/01/18/us-dollar-faces-bearish-fundamental-headwinds-from-the-fed-trade.html https://t.co/yNrA…
Gold Price Outlook Fixated on Trade War Risk, FOMC Minutes

Gold Price Outlook Fixated on Trade War Risk, FOMC Minutes

2019-05-18 19:00:00
Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst
Share:

Gold Price Outlook Fixated on Trade War Risk, FOMC Minutes

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK – TALKING POINTS

  • Gold has potential to rebound sharply from its recent stretch of weakness if looming risks intensify
  • XAUUSD might continue to face short-term weakness from the threat of recovering risk appetite and potentially hawkish Fed minutes
  • Read about How to Trade Gold or download the free DailyFX Q2 Gold Forecast for additional insight

On Thursday we highlighted how spot gold prices dropped from a 1-month high as yields rebounded along with risk appetite. Gold faced further weakness during Friday’s trading session as short-term interest rates climbed higher along with the US Dollar in response to a robust Consumer Sentiment report. Gold was subsequently dragged lower considering American consumers reportedly feel the most optimistic in 15 years with rebounding inflation expectations – a development that may help keep Fed rate cut prospects at bay.

GOLD PRICE (XAUUSD) CHART: 1-HOUR TIME FRAME (MAY 10, 2019 TO MAY 17, 2019)

Gold

The risk that markets are overpricing the probability that the Fed cuts rates this year could weigh negatively on gold if reversed. Wednesday’s release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes could trigger traders to develop a more hawkish perception of the Fed which would threaten XAUUSD due to the prospect of higher future interest rates. This in additional to weak gold chart technicals merges with the possible further weakness in the Chinese Yuan – all of which could serve as headwinds to gold.

Although, markets will likely obsess over US China trade war developments next week which will likely fuel risk appetite. Ultimately, this looks to largely dictate whether or not gold can catch a safe-haven bid from traders fleeing risk which could push XAUUSD higher.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.