We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • A chart that I don't check as frequently as most majors, indices and the like, $NZDCAD is leaning on some big support https://t.co/bJrEQp5QGt
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.67%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.60%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KnXJPN0iq9
  • RT @carlquintanilla: NEW: “The United States is set to ramp up the pressure on China if a trade deal is not agreed soon, a key White House…
  • #Oil started this week with a bang after a number a disruption of production in Saudi Arabia following this weekend’s drone attacks.. Get your crude oil #technicalanalysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/uAw5kJTrfO #OOTT https://t.co/JGydFfVPNK
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.07% Silver: 0.51% Gold: 0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/97pkfcSFUv
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.43% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.40% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.26% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.32% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/3SiM0s7ywI
  • Canadian #Dollar Price Chart: $USDCAD Range, #Loonie Breakout Potential - Weekly - https://t.co/yRqgctahvk https://t.co/fWbboNCEHs
  • Join @JStanleyFX 's weekly #webinar on trading price action at 1:00 PM ET/5:00 PM GMT. Register here: https://t.co/hSLfMqTx3G https://t.co/01pPGTCkyx
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN -3.06% #BITCOINCASH -4.12% #ETHEREUM +0.07% #RIPPLE -5.65% #LITECOIN -4.71%
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.41% Wall Street: 0.34% Germany 30: 0.07% France 40: 0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/emW4e8iBEr
Gold Prices May Fall as Dollar Gains on Fed Policy Bets, Risk Trends

Gold Prices May Fall as Dollar Gains on Fed Policy Bets, Risk Trends

2019-05-04 22:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist



  • Gold prices idle as FOMC, US jobs data offer divergent drivers
  • US CPI, Powell commentary likely to scatter Fed stimulus hopes
  • Global slowdown fears may drive haven demand for US Dollar

Check out the latest US Dollar forecast and see what is expected to drive prices through mid-year!

Gold prices struggled for direction last week, torn between competing influences from the FOMC monetary policy announcement and April’s US jobs report. The former sent prices lower as Chair Powell signaled the central bank’s outlook is firmly set at “neutral”, pushing back against recently growing speculation about a rate cut on the horizon. The latter offered a mixed view of the labor market, allowing for a bounce.

While headline payrolls growth registered north of expectations, the jobless rate seemingly fell for the wrong reason as labor force participation shrank and wage inflation printed slower than analysts projected. The markets seemed to focus on the downbeat aspects of the data set, with gold rising as a parallel drop in bond yields and the US Dollar bolstered the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets.

This selective reading probably reflects a built-in desire for retracement before the week-end. The FOMC produced a sizable down move and placed prices squarely at trend support. An unmistakable signal from the jobs data was likely needed to deliver a decisive breakout, especially just ahead of the weekly close. Without such conviction, a correction may have been the de facto default response.


As the new week begins however, it is the Fed that is likely to have offered prices the longer-lasting catalyst. Scheduled commentary from Mr Powell may reinforce the central bank’s dubious stance on easing. That might be reinforced by incoming CPI data. It is expected to show that the headline and core measures of inflation moved to 2.1 percent in April, putting them close enough to target for the FOMC to stand aside.

Meanwhile, external news-flow may stoke global slowdown fears. Monetary policy decisions from the RBA and the RBNZ are likely to strike a downbeat tone. Chinese PMI numbers may underscore sluggish performance in the world’s second-largest economy. Finally, the European Commission looks likely to downgrade official EU economic forecasts.

On balance, all this bodes well for the Dollar, and thereby threatens gold. Worries about a downshift in the business cycle might animate de-risking, and the greenback will have relatively little to keep it from capitalizing on haven flows if the Fed is thought to eschew stimulus (at least in the near term). A stronger Greenback is anathema to the yellow metal, a go-to alternative to paper currency.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter


Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Forecast: Australian Dollar Could Face First RBA Rate Cut Since August 2016

GBP Forecast: Sterling (GBP) Price Outlook: Brexit Anger May Dampen Sterling Strength

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.