News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (DEC) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 2.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • The Australian Dollar may be at risk of losses against the New Zealand Dollar after an unexpectedly high NZ inflation reading sent AUD/NZD towards challenging short-term rising trend support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PfV9MCIvw1 https://t.co/iLTliBJaXG
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.04%) S&P 500 (+0.09%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.47%) [delayed] -BBG
  • The Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio’s break to its lowest levels since August 2018 suggests that ETH may continue to outperform BTC in the coming weeks. Key levels to watch for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Get your $btc market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/mo3rw7bP4v https://t.co/qKJMkhbdkN
  • Overlooked this past session given the extreme volatility in heavily shorted US stocks: the PBOC warned of an asset bubble as it drained liquidity; the IMF said Biden's $1.9 tln stimulus could add 5ppt GDP to the US over 3 years and ECB made a thinly veiled threat over $EURUSD
  • 🇦🇺 Inflation Rate QoQ (Q4) Actual: 0.9 Expected: 0.7% Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • 🇦🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (Q4) Actual: 0.9% Expected: 0.7% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (DEC) Actual: 0.12% Previous: 0.69% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (DEC) due at 00:30 GMT (15min) Actual: 0.12% Previous: 0.69% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Inflation Rate QoQ (Q4) due at 00:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.7% Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
Gold Prices Look to Fed Commentary, Beige Book and Risk Trends

Gold Prices Look to Fed Commentary, Beige Book and Risk Trends

Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Gold Prices Look to Fed Commentary, Beige Book and Risk Trends

Gold Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices give up gains amidst geopolitical risks cooling and hawkish FOMC minutes
  • The anti-fiat asset can be vulnerable to risk trends thanks to the high-yielding US Dollar
  • Watch out for US retail sales, Fed commentary + beige book, and Trump commentary

Find out what retail traders’ Gold buy and sell decisions say about the coming price trend!

Gold prices seemed like they were about to shoot for the stars last week as fears of escalating geopolitical tensions around Syria ignited risk aversion. Stocks sank and the relatively higher-yielding US Dollar fell, fueling demand for the anti-fiat yellow metal. However, this trading dynamic quickly reversed, and by Thursday gold gave up its gains from the day before. Cooling Syria conflict tensions and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes helped contribute to this.

The week ahead looks to be lighter in terms of economic statistics. The major standout being March’s US retail sales figures that are due on Tuesday. There, consumer spending is expected to increase for the first time in two months by 0.4% m/m. However, data out of the country has been falling short relative to economists’ expectations as of late. A downside surprise may boost gold if the US Dollar declines as a result.

Central bank-wise, we have a plethora of speeches from Fed policymakers that may fuel US Dollar volatility and thereby impacting gold. San Francisco Fed President John Williams, who was announced to replace New York President William Dudley, will speak on Tuesday. The latter will also present one on Wednesday shortly after the release the Fed Beige Book. An upbeat survey of regional economic conditions that echo the optimistic tone from last week’s FOMC minutes may hurt the precious metal in the near term.

Upcoming Fed Commentary Schedule:

Gold Prices Look to Fed Commentary, Beige Book and Risk Trends

As far as political developments go, keep an eye out for how Mr. Trump chooses to respond on Syria. In addition, he will be meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday to discuss topics such as North Korea and US import tariffs on metal. At the moment, Japan is temporarily exempted from them. If more positive developments here improve sentiment and potentially the US Dollar, gold may sink.

Thanks to the greenback’s now relatively-higher yield, it has become more sensitive to volatility in the stock markets. Sometimes, it exhibits similar behavior seen in the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars which also have a decent return. The catch here is that the US Dollar also poses as the world’s most liquid asset and a safe haven. So if things really turn south, the greenback may actually find itself appreciating.

What does that mean for gold? Being the anti-fiat asset with no associated yield, inversely correlated at times with the greenback. Thus, keep an eye out for risk trends and the fundamental backdrop for the greenback. The forecast for gold will have to be neutral.

Gold Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES