News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #PELOSI SAYS WE ARE GOING TO PASS THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILL THIS WEEK PELOSI SAYS SHE WILL NEVER BRING TO THE HOUSE FLOOR A BILL THAT DOESN'T HAVE THE VOTES TO PASS $USD $SPX $XAUUSD
  • Short-term uncertainties to keep the pressure on equity markets. Get your weekly equities forecast from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/JLMDPZKvN8 https://t.co/YbdJnwoqj1
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/hqW38VawJl
  • - Unreal atmosphere - Shame about the result, but no complaints - Usyk masterclass - Heavyweight division blown wide open https://t.co/BKCLJTDk9h
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/n0CVWWOJDe https://t.co/0uLjsQ2gwM
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here: https://t.co/D8DXSAdpqC https://t.co/nfiFAlyYXv
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0unrdT https://t.co/mIsVJ4zTbB
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/hymrumanUY
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfs2Iz https://t.co/6dAqxsVfxJ
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Xu3ZT7EtrW https://t.co/5VHKn52MaA
Gold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven Demand

Gold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven Demand

Michael Boutros, Strategist
Gold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven Demand

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices inched higher this week with the precious metal nudging up nearly 0.5% ahead of the New York lose on Friday. The gains come amid continued volatility in broader markets with all three major U.S. equity indices poised to close lower on the week. For gold, this volatility may keep a floor under prices as risk sentiment begins to deteriorate.

U.S. Non-Farm payrolls showed a gain of just 103K jobs for the month of March with 50K downward revision to the two-month net payroll count. Although unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% (expectations were for a down-tick to 4.0%) the labor force participation rate fell to 62.9% and further highlights the overall weaker tone of the report.

With the unemployment rate at-or-near the central bank’s “natural” longer-running rate, this week’s developments do not change the broader outlook for Fed policy moving forward. Heading into next week however, traders will be eyeing the release of U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) and minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting.

The NFP disappointment adds to mounting concerns regarding the growing threat of a trade war as rhetoric between the Trump administration and China continues to heat up. Traders found solace in the perceived safety of gold with prices reversing sharply off the weekly lows on Friday. But does this mean the correction off the March highs is over? The technicals suggest we’re not out of the woods just yet.

New to Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Gold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven DemandGold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven DemandGold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven Demand
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +2.67 (72.8% of traders are long)- bearishreading
  • Long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 0.7% higher from last week
  • Short positions are4.5% lower than yesterday and 8.4% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Review Michael’s educational series on the Foundations of Technical Analysis: Building a Trading Strategy

GoldDaily

Gold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven Demand

Price Chart

Gold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven Demand

Gold prices have largely continued to trade within the January range with price holding this descending channel formation off the yearly highs. Daily momentum has failed to offer any guidance here and the focus is on immediate support at 1316 and the yearly high-day reversal close at 1348. We need to clear this range to get clarity on our medium-term outlook.

Broadly speaking, price continue to trade within the confines of a multi-year upslope and keeps the long-term outlook constructive while above 1295. A topside breach of this formation targets 1366 backed by 1378/79.

What are the traits of a Successful Trader? Find out with our Free eBook!

Gold 240min Price Chart

Gold Prices Bid as Weak NFPs, Trade War Concerns Stoke Haven Demand

A closer look at gold price action sees the early week advance turning sharply from parallel resistance of the slope line extending off the February highs. Interim support objectives rest at the March low-day close at 1316 backed by 1312 where the 100% extension converges on the 100-day moving average. We’ll be looking for an exhaustion low into one of these levels IF price is heading higher. Resistance stands with the upper parallel ~1342 backed by 1348 with a breach above 1355/56 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

Bottom line: Look for another low next week towards 1316 & 1312 for possible exhaustion with a breach above this near-term slope needed shift the immediate focus higher.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Subscribe to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES