News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Forecast: Growth, Tech Stocks Falling Out of Favor? #NASDAQ #SPX #DowJones https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/03/07/Nasdaq-100-SP-500-Dow-Jones-Forecast-Growth-Tech-Stocks-Falling-Out-of-Favor.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/cGMBChx7dJ
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/IAwKQiZzaC
  • RT @FxWestwater: New Zealand Dollar May Fall Further as Stimulus-Driven Yield Climb Continues Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/03/09/New-Zealand-Dollar-May-Fall-Further-as-Stimulus-Driven-Yield-Climb-Continues.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/6…
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.43%) S&P 500 (+0.47%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.62%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #ASEAN FX appear in trouble vs #USD in the near-term amid rising Treasury yields (see link) My ASEAN-based USD index confirmed a break under key falling resistance from April Prices face the 200-day SMA, a break higher may open the door to more gains https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/03/08/US-Dollar-Outlook-Treasury-Yields-May-Continue-Pressuring-ASEAN-Emerging-Market-FX.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/JtYW6TfeZO
  • 🇯🇵 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) Actual: 2.8% Expected: 3% Previous: 5.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
  • 🇯🇵 GDP Growth Annualized Final (Q4) Actual: 11.7% Expected: 12.8% Previous: 22.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 National People's Congress due at 00:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-09
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Expected: 3% Previous: 5.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 GDP Growth Annualized Final (Q4) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Expected: 12.8% Previous: 22.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
Gold Prices Vulnerable into February Open- Outlook Constructive Above 1200

Gold Prices Vulnerable into February Open- Outlook Constructive Above 1200

Michael Boutros, Strategist
Gold Prices Vulnerable into February Open- Outlook Constructive Above 1200

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices charged higher this week, recovering all the losses sustained in the previous session with the yellow metal rallying 2.3% to trade at 1219 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance into near-three month highs has been supported by continued softness in the greenback with the DXY down another 0.66% this week to mark its 6th consecutive weekly loss.

Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday showed the U.S. economy added 227K jobs for the month of January, far surpassing expectations for a print of 180K. While the headline unemployment rate did uptick to 4.8%, it was accompanied by a 0.2% uptick in Labor Force Participation (which is a good thing). Still, slower wage-growth figures are likely to encourage a continued wait-and-see approach from the FOMC. Fed Fund Futures remain well rooted with expectations for a June rate-hike currently priced at just under 70% (roughly the same as last week). So, what does all this mean for gold? As long as the outlook for interest rates remains stable, the downside is likely to remain limited for bullion in the medium-term, especially as boarder equity markets continue to probe into new record highs. That said, gold prices are closing the week just below technical resistance and leave the constructive outlook at risk into the February open.

Gold Prices Vulnerable into February Open- Outlook Constructive Above 1200

A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.48 (60% of traders are long). Long positions are 15.2% below levels seen last week while short positions are up 14.2% over the same period. It’s worth noting that although the narrowing from net-long positioning is seen as constructive, the move has been accompanied by lackluster market participation with open interest 8.7% below its monthly average. That said, the ratio being at more neutral levels here further highlights the risk of a near-term pullback in price and I would be looking for a flip to net-short in the days ahead to validate a more aggressive long-bias.

Gold Daily

Gold Prices Vulnerable into February Open- Outlook Constructive Above 1200

While this rally did surpass the January highs, the advance was capped by confluence resistance at ~1223 where the 100-day moving average converges on former slope support extending off the 2015 low. Note that we’ve continued to mark technical divergence into these highs & while the broader outlook does remains constructive, the immediate advance remains at risk while below this threshold.

As noted last week, “Bottom line: the battle lines are drawn at 1171-1219 heading into the close of January trade & while we may yet see some softening / sideways price-action, weakness into the lower bounds of this range should be viewed as a buying opportunity.” Interim support rests at 1200 with a breach of the highs targeting subsequent topside resistance objectives at 1241 & 50% retracement at 1249.

For an a more in-depth discussion on gold and other key setups in play heading into the start of February trade, review Friday’s DailyFX Roundtable: Key Trade Setups & Themes Ahead of RBA & RBNZ.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX at 13:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES