News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/eF0XS79LgK
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/gaYbbaTnpb
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/HCvzbjEkr6
  • Get our analysts’ view on the key fundamentals for indices in Q2. Download now. https://t.co/Etdyanp76f https://t.co/n2wxfyMsJt
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
Gold Prices Vulnerable Ahead of FOMC / July Close

Gold Prices Vulnerable Ahead of FOMC / July Close

Michael Boutros, Strategist
Gold Prices Vulnerable Ahead of FOMC / July Close

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Bearish

Gold prices are weaker for a second consecutive week with the precious metal off by more than 1% ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come alongside a quiet week off economic data with equity markets on a slow grind higher into the close of the week. The outlook for gold remains broadly unchanged and heading into next week, a near-term recovery may offer another opportunity to take prices lower.

All eyes will once again fall on the FOMC next week with the central bank interest rate decision slated for Wednesday. Fed Fund Futures are showing the first material expectation (>50%) for a rate hike to be in March 2017 and although no change is anticipated tomorrow, traders will be looking for any changes to the policy statement / vote count that could suggest the committee may look to hike rates at the next quarterly monetary policy meeting on September 21st. Expectations for higher interest rates will tend to weigh on gold which does not pay a dividend, and with markets more-or-less on a steady footing, the near-term outlook for bullion prices remains vulnerable.

In addition to FOMC, the advanced read on U.S. 2Q GDP on Friday may spur added volatility in gold prices. Consensus estimates are calling for an annualized print of 2.6% q/q, up from just 1.1% q/q with personal consumption expected come in at 4.1%, up from 1.5%. We’ll want to keep a close eye on the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) -which is the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation- with estimates calling for a 0.3% decline to 1.7% q/q. With inflation continuing to be the laggard of the Fed’s dual mandate, a weaker-than-expected read could put a near-term floor under gold prices as interest rate expectations are pushed out further.

Gold Daily

Gold Prices Vulnerable Ahead of FOMC / July Close

From a technical standpoint, our outlook for gold remains unchanged from last week. Key near-term confluence support extends into 1303/08 with the immediate short-bias at risk heading into this zone. With that said, the region could prompt a near-term recovery- look for initial resistance at 1337 backed by our bearish invalidation level at 1359 (both areas of interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries).

A break below confluence support targets subsequent downside targets at 1287 & confluence support into 12665/70. We would be looking for long-triggers on a move into this region. Ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decision, it’s worth noting that the Yen (inverse of USD/JPY) vs. gold correlation is at its strongest 20-day rolling correlation since 2008 at 0.82. With that in mind, keep an eye out for USDJPY support around 104.16/59.Continue to track this trade throughout the week on SB Trade Desk.

Looking longer-term?

Click here to review DailyFX’s 3Q Gold Projections

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES