News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/ZwwuTzTeac
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/4DGXwA8vqs
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/mAMhWbV6Jy
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
Fed to Make/Break Gold Rally- Bullish Invalidation at Weekly Low

Fed to Make/Break Gold Rally- Bullish Invalidation at Weekly Low

Michael Boutros, Strategist
Fed to Make/Break Gold Rally- Bullish Invalidation at Weekly Low

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices rallied for a second consecutive week with the precious metal up more than 2.2% to trade at 1275 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes in spite of a rebound in the greenback with the U.S. Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) rallying nearly 1% after reversing off Fibonacci support mid-week. Key upcoming event risk puts the immediate topside bias at risk as the dollar struggles to regain its footing.

Heading into next week, all eyes are on the Fed with the FOMC policy meeting on tap for Wednesday. Fed fund futures are factoring a zero percent chance that the central bank will raise rates and we’ll be expecting most of the volatility to come by way of the statement and subsequent presser with Chair Janet Yellen. Traders will be closely eyeing the committee’s updated projections as they pertain to growth, inflation, employment and the all-important interest rate dot-plot. Last time around the projections showed median estimates for the fed funds rate between 0.75%-1% for 2016 with the longer-running terminal rate seen at 3.25%.

On the back of last month’s dismal Non-Farm Payroll report, expectations for the timing of Fed normalization have been pushed out with markets now pricing in the first rate hike to be in February of 2017. If the Fed projections are adjusted to reflect market expectations, look for the repricing to remain supportive of gold prices as concerns about domestic growth, a material slowdown in China and the upcoming UK referendum continue to set a high bar for the possibility off Fed tightening.

Gold Daily

Fed to Make/Break Gold Rally- Bullish Invalidation at Weekly Low

Last week I noted that, “Heading into next week, the near-term focus remains higher while above Friday’s low. Initial resistance is eyed at 1250 where the 50% retracement of the May decline converges on basic trendline resistance off the yearly high. A breach here would suggest a more meaningful reversal is underway with subsequent topside objectives eyed at the upper median-line parallel, currently around ~1270/71.” Indeed prices did break above trendline resistance extending off the yearly high before encountering a near-term resistance confluence at 1278 where the 76.4% retracement of the decline converges on a newly identified ascending median-line formation extending off the March low.

We’ll take a more neutral stance heading into next week’s key interest rate decision with a general long-bias favored while above this week’s low at 1235. A breach higher from here targets subsequent topside objectives at 1293 & 1301 (2015 high-week & high-day closes) with more significant resistance seen at the convergence of the 200-week moving average and a sliding parallel extending off the February high. Continue to track this trade throughout the week on SB Trade Desk.

Looking longer-term? Click here to review DailyFX’s 2Q Gold Projections

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES