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How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?

How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?

2015-11-27 23:06:00
James Stanley, Strategist
How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

The past six weeks have been brutal for Gold, and this was really sparked by rate hike expectations out of the Federal Reserve, as the top in Gold meshes well with the bottom in the US Dollar (both taking place on October 15th). But over the past six weeks, Gold is down by 11% and the dollar is only up by 8%; so this isn’t’ the only factor bringing pain to Gold prices. Numerous technical levels have given way, and Gold prices are sitting at six-year lows with very little support anywhere nearby.

Next week’s economic docket is absolutely loaded, and with Central Banks taking center stage beginning on Thursday with the December ECB meeting (even though RBA reports on Tuesday, nothing there is expected), followed by the Federal Reserve just two weeks later in the much anticipated meeting in which markets are expecting that first rate hike in nine years, Gold prices are likely to see continued volatility. Next week, following that ECB meeting on Thursday, we hear from Ms. Yellen as she appears before Congress. Any news or indications that further firm up those December rate hike expectations could lead to additional pressure in Gold prices. Expect that inverse relationship with the US Dollar to continue as traders bid up USD-assets ahead of the Fed.

From a technical standpoint: We’re trading at lows. There isn’t really much that you can do here unless price action moves back up to a resistance (or prior support) level with which you can base a short-side entry with an adequate stop. We discussed some of these potential levels in our most recent Technical piece on Gold. Outside of that, traders would need to utilize breakout-logic, and with prices having been chopping around at new five-plus year lows for the past 10 days, the risk of a reversal continues to increase as time passes without a retracement. As this market gets even more net short, we’re running out of new sellers to continue pushing prices lower. This is the danger of sentiment, and this is why you should take this into consideration when analyzing markets (you can follow sentiment of FXCM traders in Gold with our Speculative Sentiment Index Indicator). Because even if every factor in the world says prices should fall, if there is nobody left to sell, well prices are going to go up from simple deduction. Buyers will rule the day, even if there are only three or four of them, because there is nobody left to sell at those low prices.

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