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Gold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDP

Gold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDP

Michael Boutros, Strategist
Gold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDPGold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDP

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices continued to fall for the fifth consecutive week with the precious metal down 0.6% to trade at 1076 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will move to raise interest rates in December for the first time since 2006.

Looking ahead to next week, traders will be closely eyeing the second read on 3Q GDP. Consensus estimate are calling for an uptick in the annualized pace of growth to the tune of 2.1%, up from a previous read of 1.5%. On the back of last month’s stellar Non-farm payroll report, stronger U.S. data is likely to continue propping up the greenback at the expense of gold. Should the data surpass growth expectations, look for gold to remain under pressure on increased speculation for higher rates next month.

From a technical standpoint, gold rebounded off the 100% extension of the decline off the 2015 high at 1067- a level not seen since February of 2010. The trade has been quite extended on the downside marking a 5th straight week of declines with 15 of the past 18 sessions marking losses for bullion prices. A bout of short-covering this week offered a short reprieve to the battered precious metal before turning over again on Friday.

We may yet see some upside for the trade in the near-term after this tumble- look for resistance at 1096-1100 where the July low-day close, the September low and this week’s high converge. A breach above 1112 needed to shift the focus back to the topside. A break of this week’s low targets more significant support at the confluence of the lower median-line parallel & a longer-dated .618% extension at 1053. Bottom-line: gold is responding to downtrend support & while the rebound may push a bit higher from here, the broader focus is weighted to the short-side sub 1112.

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