News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/YAtLZ9lqNi
  • EU's Barnier says he remains determined for a Brexit deal $GBP
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 55.7 Expected: 56.3 Previous: 59.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 55.1 Expected: 56 Previous: 58.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 54.3 Expected: 54.1 Previous: 55.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/UTWxbnNz7M https://t.co/txgNCgB5Y8
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 56.3 Previous: 59.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 56 Previous: 58.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 54.1 Previous: 55.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
  • 🇵🇱 Unemployment Rate (AUG) Actual: 6.1% Expected: 6.1% Previous: 6.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-23
Gold Breakout Imminent- Will US GDP Be the Trigger?

Gold Breakout Imminent- Will US GDP Be the Trigger?

2014-05-23 22:44:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:
Gold Breakout Imminent- Will US GDP Be the Trigger?

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices are virtually unchanged on the week with prices off by a mere 0.1% to trade at $1291 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Prices have continued trade within a tight range despite ongoing strength in the US dollar and broader equity markets. Nevertheless, gold remains at a critical juncture and the technical picture continues to suggest that a break of a multi-week consolidation pattern is imminent as we head into the close of May trade.

In light of the recent strong demand for US Treasuries, it’s disconcerting that although gold has largely moved in tandem Treasuries since the start of the year, it has been unable to participate in the bond rally since April. This condition suggests that the gold market remains vulnerable in the near-term and with the long bond coming off key near-term resistance at the 61.8% retracement from the decline off the 2012 record highs, further weakness in Treasuries could put added downside pressure on gold prices.

Looking ahead, the preliminary 1Q GDP print highlights the biggest event risk for the week ahead with consensus estimates calling for a downward revision to reflect an annual contraction of 0.5% q/q. With that said, a dismal growth read may dampen the appeal of the US Dollar and spur increased demand for gold as interest expectations get pushed out. Watch for developments in the bond market and the greenback for guidance with the recent price action in gold warning of a decisive move heading into the monthly close.

From a technical standpoint, our outlook remains unchanged from last week. “Gold has continued to trade into the apex of a multi-week consolidation pattern off the April highs and a break-out ahead of the May close is in focus. A break below 1260/70 is needed to put the broader bearish trend back into play targeting $1216/24 and the 2013 lows at $1178. Interim resistance and our near-term bearish invalidation level stands at $1307/10 with a move surpassing $1327/34 shifting our broader focus back to the long-side of gold. Bottom line: look for a decisive break of this pattern next week with a move surpassing the May opening range to offer further clarity on our medium-term directional bias. The broader outlook remains weighted to the downside sub $1334. -MB

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES