We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/wr67nkxc8z https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/QzNoNYgMgP https://t.co/9CV6iZt40j
  • My weekend trading video: 'S&P 500 Rises on Trump China Presser, #NFPs and Rate Decisions Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/05/30/SP-500-Rises-on-Trump-China-Presser-NFPs-and-Rate-Decisions-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/ZvoGoibzj1
  • Hopes are high for deeper European economic integration as the continent battles back from the coronavirus slowdowns – but will it hold? What impact can this have on #Euro? Find out from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/b9ZWRd4cTr https://t.co/gngm5tKqjz
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/iL7xlHLBiF
  • #Gold has a short-term bullish set-up that may play nicely with USD weakening. The longer and shorter-term path of least resistance remains higher. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/B4MVrg8f6i
Gold Posts Largest Drop Since June Ahead of Fed- Bearish Below $1373

Gold Posts Largest Drop Since June Ahead of Fed- Bearish Below $1373

2013-09-13 19:54:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:
Forex_Gold_Posts_Largest_Drop_Since_June_Ahead_of_Fed-_Bearish_Below_1373_body_GOLD.png, Gold Posts Largest Drop Since June Ahead of Fed- Bearish Below $1373

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold prices were markedly weaker for the third consecutive week with the yellow metal plummeting more than 5.2% ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses mark the largest single week decline since June and come ahead of next week’s highly anticipated FOMC policy meeting where investors will be closely eying the taper timetable and the updated forecasts from the committee. Until then, bullion remains at risk heading into next week after breaking below key technical support.

Inflation data early next week will be central focus ahead of central bank policy meeting with consensus estimates calling for a print of 1.6% y/y for the month of August, down from 2.0% y/y in July. Interestingly enough, core CPI 9ex food & energy) is expected to uptick to 1.8% from 1.7%. Although inflation data has remained rather well anchored at or below 2% since the start of the year, it has been on the rise for the past 4-months and the print could impact help support gold prices ahead of the Fed with a stronger than expected read, specifically in core prices. Should the data come in line with expectations or weaker, look for prices to remain under pressure as the appeal of gold’s anti-inflationary hedge abates and expectations of Fed tapering weigh on demand.

The street is now widely expecting the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases in the amount of $10 Billion next week with price action in gold and treasuries both suggesting the move may have already been priced in. This month is not your run of the mill meeting- we get the Bernanke presser as well as the updated quarterly forecasts from the committee as they pertain to growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates. As such, expect a surge in market volatility with gold to come under pressure in the unlikely event the size of the taper is more aggressive. On the back of last week’s mixed NFP print, it’s likely the central bank will take a cautious approach to the “taper talk” as Bernanke tries to limit the spillover effect and gradually end the easing cycle.

From a technical standpoint, gold broke through key technical support this week at $1356 (representing the confluence of the 100% Fibonacci extension off the August highs, the 100-day moving average and channel support dating back to 2013 low made back in June). The move reaffirmed our bias and triggered all three price targets noted in this week’s scalp report before settling just above the $1297- $1306 support zone. Note that daily RSI is now below the 40-threshold for the first time since early July and marks the first directional breaks sub-40 since the mid-June decline. Only a breach above $1373 invalidates the broader decline off the August highs with a break below support targeting near-term objectives at $1268-$1276 and $1234. With that said, we will maintain a neutral bias heading into FOMC noting our invalidation levels and price targets. -MB

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To be added to Michael’s distribution list Click Here

New to FX Trading? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.