News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell over 1.8%. It is likely to end the day with a large bearish candlestick, which flags more downside risk. Breaking below 24,000 support will likely open the door for further losses with an eye at 23,780 - the 61.8% Fibonacci downward extension. https://t.co/mrYUt8dBvX
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.14% Silver: -0.30% Oil - US Crude: -1.24% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XNHL75HNAY
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.37% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.34% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.26% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/c9qsogfePj
  • $GBPUSD To Extend Slide on No-Deal #Brexit Fears, #Covid19UK Second Wave https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/09/21/GBPUSD-To-Extend-Slide-on-No-Deal-Brexit-Fears-Covid-19-Second-Wave.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/jEGvt9WMpn
  • 🇨🇭 Current Account (Q2) Actual: CHF 9.9B Previous: CHF 14.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-21
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.12% Wall Street: -0.26% France 40: -0.76% Germany 30: -0.89% FTSE 100: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/WZdIvNps2d
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Current Account (Q2) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Previous: CHF 17B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-21
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/s8MwR4fS22
  • #USD, #GBP, #EUR Volatility Ahead of Cross-Continental Geopolitical Risks 🌎 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/09/21/USD-GBP-EUR-Volatility-Ahead-of-Cross-Continental-Geopolitical-Risks.html
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/YqhzoZ7Iy2
Forex Analysis: Gold Sheds 2% But Holds Monthly Range Ahead of Major Event Risk

Forex Analysis: Gold Sheds 2% But Holds Monthly Range Ahead of Major Event Risk

2012-12-01 05:51:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:
Gold_Sheds_2_But_Holds_Monthly_Range_Ahead_of_Major_Event_Risk_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: Gold Sheds 2% But Holds Monthly Range Ahead of Major Event Risk

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold was off by more than 2.1% this week with the precious metal closing at $1715 in New York on Friday. Prices had fallen more than 2% on Wednesday alone before closing the session down 1.28% with futures volumes hitting record highs early in the week. Immediately rumors circulated of an erroneous "fat fingered" trade after bullion plummeted $25 at the open of futures trade with Reuters reporting the "equivalent of more than 2 million ounces of COMEX gold futures changing hands in less than five minutes." The session was marked by massive swings in equity markets as investors reacted to developments out of Washington with the Dow coming back from a triple digit decline to close markedly higher on the session. The rebound in gold off the lows was satisfactory however, and while we cannot rule out another test of the 1693-1705 region, the broader prospects for gold remain constructive.

With the Fed pledging to maintain its accommodative stance on monetary policy for the foreseeable future, investors are likely to favor gold as a classic hedge against inflationary pressures and with the end of operation twist quickly approaching, the Fed may look to implement other non-standard measures which are unlikely to be sterilized in nature. That said, the Fiscal Cliff threat continues to drive price and could trigger further weakness as prices continue to loosely track equity markets on the downside. If concerns are put to rest before the year's end, bullion should remain well supported as broader commodities advance.

The Fiscal Cliff debate has continued to grip markets with remarks by various members of congress fueling volatility across asset classes. But with major event risk on tap next week, the negotiations are likely to be brushed aside until the deadlock is broken as investors look ahead to interest rate decisions from the RBA, BoE, ECB, RBNZ and the BoC. The flurry of central bank policy meetings lead up to the Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report on Friday where we will get an updated assessment on the state of the US employment sector. NFPs are expected to rise by just 93K for the month of November with the unemployment rate widely expected to hold at 7.9%. Due to the importance of next week's docket, we maintain a neutral stance here while highlighting key levels to watch for as we head into the first week of December trade.

From a technical standpoint gold has continued to trade within the confines of an ascending channel formation off the November lows with prices closing out the week just above channel support at $1714 after rebounding off the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the October decline. A break below the this level risks a pullback into the $1695-$1705 support zone with only a compromise of this region invalidating the longer term gold outlook. Near-term resistance stands at the $1735-$1738 pivot zone where multiple longer-term Fibonacci extensions rest with a break above this mark challenging the monthly highs and our secondary objective at $1775 (our primary objective cited two weeks ago triggered last week at $1750). Note that daily RSI has continued to ho ld below the 50-mark with a close below 40 suggest in a deeper correction into figure may yet be at hand. With the start of the week and month holding so much event risk, the December opening range promises to be a telling one as we head into the close of 2012. -MB

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES