We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/yXomAftdv8 https://t.co/wOQAHZVnxB
  • Forex trading, which is the act of exchanging fiat currencies, is thought to be centuries old – dating back to the Babylonian period. Learn about the history of Forex here:https://t.co/ePTJlbUP7c https://t.co/WS2LkCt9gX
  • Two major events will dominate #Euro trading in the coming week: an #ECB meeting on Eurozone monetary policy, followed by an #EU summit to reach agreement on a recovery fund. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wnXjTDizMv https://t.co/tmxDfkgmSv
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/UQRaKusFP7
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/nUvvI3WQpx
  • Australian Dollar is up fractionally this week with Aussie stalling just below the yearly range highs. Here are the levels that matter on the $AUDUSD technical chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/jYzBK1qH4s https://t.co/gYj4tFbsGS
  • What is the road ahead for equities this coming week? Check out my fundamental outlook below! #DowJones #SP500 #DAX30 #FTSE100 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2020/07/11/Dow-Jones-SP-500-DAX-30-FTSE-100-Outlook-Stocks-Week-Ahead.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/HjIBDKqwvO
  • #Gold price gains seem to depend on monetary stimulus expansion and may turn lower as contraction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet underpins the US Dollar. Get your #metals update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/8NHLc8jdhw https://t.co/0YYKXqtY9V
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/OjTZOQEytM https://t.co/DDCWX1In7k
  • The US Dollar is pressured as rising coronavirus cases fail to dent 2021 GDP bets. Could the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso and Malaysian Ringgit rise? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/u1qhaIGGoC https://t.co/kvFgxQjLb0
Gold Aims Higher on Inflation Bets but Greece News Flow Could Weigh

Gold Aims Higher on Inflation Bets but Greece News Flow Could Weigh

2012-02-25 06:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Gold_Aims_Higher_on_Inflation_Bets_but_Greece_News_Flow_Could_Weigh_body_Picture_5.png, Gold Aims Higher on Inflation Bets but Greece News Flow Could WeighGold_Aims_Higher_on_Inflation_Bets_but_Greece_News_Flow_Could_Weigh_body_GoldFeb24.jpg, Gold Aims Higher on Inflation Bets but Greece News Flow Could Weigh

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold has been pulled in opposing directions over recent weeks by the conflicting influence of risk appetite trends and economic fundamentals. While Eurozone sovereign risk fears dominated the spotlight, gold found itself facing de-facto selling pressure as safe-haven demand bolstered the US Dollar. When EU officials finally ironed out an agreement on the second Greek bailout package and the spotlight turned back to economic growth considerations, risk appetite recovered as the process of pricing out the threat of an imminent credit crunch played out across financial markets. This proved supportive on two fronts. First, it weighed on the US Dollar; second, it stoked inflation expectations as traders sized up the implications of a pickup in the tone of economic data against ultra-loose monetary policies pursued by most of the world’s top central banks. A replay of this dynamic is likely in the week ahead.

On the risk sentiment front, Greece returns to the spotlight as policymakers in Athens scramble to complete a long list of requirements ahead of the EU leaders’ summit beginning on Thursday to unlock the first portion of the €130 billion bailout. The clock is ticking with €14.5 billion in maturing debt set to roll over on March 20. If Greece is not able to secure funding by then, a messy default will follow. While fears of such an outcome are probably overdone considering the ECB padded EU banks’ defenses with close to €500 billion through the 3-year LTRO facility in December, the unprecedented nature of a default within the currency block is likely to trigger reflexive risk aversion. This means that at least over the near term, the emergence of any stumbling blocks separating Greece from its promised aid money is likely to jolt the US Dollar higher and pressure gold prices. Needless to say, a relatively smooth Greek funding process will probably have the opposite effect.

Meanwhile, the fundamental landscape appears relatively supportive. G10 economic data has been outperforming relative to expectations by increasingly significant margins since mid-November according to data from Citigroup. Median forecasts for key data releases from the US, the Eurozone and China (the world’s top drivers of growth) in the week ahead point to another strong outing. This is likely to drive inflation expectations higher, particularly if combined with strong uptake at the second 3-year LTRO to be held on February 28-29. Although the ECB program differs from outright quantitative easing as pursued by the Fed, the BOE and the BOJ, its aim is precisely the same. Namely, it seeks to lower borrowing costs by expanding the supply of credit with newly created liquidity. Indeed, the size of the ECB balance sheet now far outstrips that of the Fed. This means a large LTRO is likely to be viewed as relatively negative for paper assets (albeit EUR-denominated ones), compounding demand for gold as an alternative store of value.

Geopolitical jitters present a wild-card. Oil prices have been soaring courtesy of a swelling risk premium as Iran-linked supply disruption worries multiply. Recent news-flow suggests China, Japan and India – the top three buyers of Iranian crude – will substantially reduce imports amid Western pressure. Feeling increasingly isolated, Tehran might be encouraged to lash out, raising fears of an imminent conflagration that may compromise the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane that carries close to 40 percent of global seaborne crude supply. An oil shock (if one is to materialize) is likely to prove gold supportive, amplifying inflation expectations further still. – IS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.