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Swiss Franc Forecast Holds Opposing Views Against U.S. Dollar, Euro

Swiss Franc Forecast Holds Opposing Views Against U.S. Dollar, Euro

2010-03-19 21:29:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs raised its outlook for 2010 and expects the growth rate to expand at an annual rate of 1.4% amid an initial forecast for a 0.7% expansion in GDP, and sees exports increasing 4.5% this year versus previous expectations for a 3.7% rise in foreign demands. In addition, the government projects private consumption to advance 1.3% compared to the 0.9% estimate back in December, while officials maintained its 2011 projections and sees GDP expanding 1.5% next year. Nevertheless, SNB board member Jean-Pierre Danthine announced the central bank will maintain the expansion in monetary policy and pledge to unwind its emergency measures when the time comes, but reiterated that the central bank will continue to counteract any “excessive” appreciation in the Swiss franc as the board aims to balance the risks for growth and inflation. However, the ongoing turmoil in the Euro-Zone is likely to stoke increased demands for the safe-haven currency over the following week, and the EUR/CHF may fall to a fresh record-low since the single-currency was introduced in 1999 as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the currency market. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF appears to have carved out a near-term top during the previous month as price action remains held down by the 10-Day SMA at 1.0632 and the lack of momentum to retrace the decline from the February high (1.0897) could push the exchange rate into a broad based range as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. - DS

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