0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇨🇳 FDI (YTD) YoY (JUL) Actual: 0.5% Previous: -1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/6b3JtrSQnP
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/9:30 AM GMT to learn about how you can become a better trader. Register here: https://t.co/WeWGKtdlyz https://t.co/4hIQtGPL0N
  • Gold Prices May Resume Selloff After Digesting Largest Drop in 7 Years - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/08/13/Gold-Prices-May-Resume-Selloff-After-Digesting-Largest-Drop-in-7-Years.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #XAUUSD #gold https://t.co/aWOvE1KJXc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.83%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.46%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/EQ77jevtaX
  • Heads Up:🇫🇷 IEA Oil Market Report due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
  • Hey traders! I'm sure you've all heard about trend trading. Sharpen your knowledge here: https://t.co/jkliL5sxj7 https://t.co/QPW1os7wbE
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.98% Gold: 0.60% Oil - US Crude: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/gDZGfvBOHv
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.31% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.22% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.21% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/9IwXKOUieT
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.16% US 500: -0.17% Germany 30: -0.24% France 40: -0.50% FTSE 100: -0.96% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MtMyrT3zZY
Canadian Dollar Outlook Firms on Easing Trade Tension and with GDP Ahead

Canadian Dollar Outlook Firms on Easing Trade Tension and with GDP Ahead

2018-07-27 21:32:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:
Canadian Dollar Outlook Firms on Easing Trade Tension and with GDP Ahead

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bullish

USDCAD Analysis and Talking Points:

  • NAFTA Concerns Eased After Juncker/Trump Statement
  • Robust Canadian GDP May Provide Boost for Loonie
  • Risk Reversals Suggest Diminished Demand for CAD Weakness

See our Q3 CAD forecast to learn what will drive the GBP through the quarter.

NAFTA Concerns Eased After Juncker/Trump Statement

Sentiment surrounding the Canadian Dollar has been somewhat positive following the de-escalated trade tensions between the US and EU. This came after both parties made progress in agreeing to have a truce on tariffs, pending more talks to resolves trade barriers at issue. Consequently, the spill-over effects have eased NAFTA concerns, additionally, recent headlines regarding NAFTA have been positive with US Trade representative stating that it is possible for NAFTA partners to reach an agreement in principle next month.

Canadian GDP May Boost Loonie

On the data front, the key risk will be the GDP report for May. There is a potential for a robust figure around the 0.4%, which will likely buoy the Loonie. Domestic activity has been strong across the board, including a 2% rise in retail volumes and 1.3% increase in wholesales volume. Downside risks are from the manufacturing metric due to the continued shutdown in refineries, which had weighed on manufacturing sales. However, with this in mind there is a potential for an annualised reading of 2.6%, close to the BoC’s 2.8% projection in the July MPR.

Next week’s Economic Calendar

Canadian Dollar Outlook Firms on Easing Trade Tension and with GDP Ahead

Source: DailyFX

Canadian Dollar Bulls Gaining Momentum

BoC rate hike expectations are firmer with over 15bps priced in for the October meeting, while a 25bps rate hike is almost fully priced in by the year-end. In option markets, CAD put premiums have shown a material decline, signalling that demand for further CAD weakness has diminished. Alongside this, US-Canadian 2yr bond spreads have tightened and is now looking at the key 60bps mark, consequently keeping USDCAD pressured, while sizeable short interest in CAD are vulnerable to a potential squeeze.

Canadian Dollar Outlook Firms on Easing Trade Tension and with GDP Ahead

USDCAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIMEFRAME (October 2017-July 2018)

Canadian Dollar Outlook Firms on Easing Trade Tension and with GDP Ahead

Chart by IG

USDCAD Technical Levels

Resistance 1: 1.3110 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement)

Resistance 2: 1.3150 (Psychological Level)

Resistance 3: 1.3180-1.32 (Resistance Area)

Support 1: 1.3000 (Psychological Level)

Support 2: 1.2940-50 (Support Area)

CAD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.